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My College Football Picks, 2009 Week 11

On the season I am now 88-100-1 against the spread overall, but I'm still a solid 38-32 in games I actually thought were worth wagering on. Here are the spreads on this week's games involving ranked teams. My picks are in bold, with the nine games I plan to put real money on marked by an asterisk:

Thursday, Nov 12 
* #23 South Florida @ Rutgers +1

Friday, Nov 13
* West Virginia @ #5 Cincinnati -9

Saturday, Nov 14
#13 Houston @ UCF +5½
Indiana @ #19 Penn St. -26½
Michigan @ #21 Wisconsin -8½
* #2 Texas @ Baylor +24
* #7 Georgia Tech @ Duke +12
#24 Clemson @ N.C. State +8
#20 Virginia Tech @ Maryland +17½
#22 BYU @ New Mexico +27
* Idaho @ #6 Boise St. -30½
#25 Stanford @ #11 USC +10½
#12 Miami (FL) @ North Carolina +3½
[#25] Nebraska @ Kansas +4½
* #15 Iowa @ #10 Ohio St. -16½
* #1 Florida @ South Carolina +15
Louisiana Tech @ #9 LSU -25
* #18 Arizona @ California -1
#3 Alabama @ Mississippi St. +12½
* #16 Utah @ #4 TCU -20
Texas Tech @ #17 Oklahoma St. -3½
Notre Dame @ #8 Pittsburgh -7
Arizona St. @ #14 Oregon -17

In unranked Pac-10 play, the other two conference games this week are:
Washington @ Oregon State -12
UCLA @ Washington State +17½

This week, no byes and no virtual byes. Everyone in action is playing and is playing within their own subdivision.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

The Trojan Fan's Rooting Interests for Week 11

Last week was a decent week for USC's rooting interests. USC beat Arizona State, Stanford beat Oregon, Arizona beat Washington State, Northwestern beat Iowa, Ohio State beat Penn State and Navy beat Notre Dame, which I wasn't rooting for, but in hindsight, was happy to see. The latest BCS rankings have USC at #9. That makes USC BCS-eligible. To get into a BCS bowl, USC needs to win its remaining three games and needs to get one of the four at-large bids. An automatic Rose Bowl bid would require Oregon to lose two of their last three games, or two, if USC ends up in a three-way tie for first with Arizona and Oregon. The Ducks have a tough road game at Arizona and a rivalry game against Oregon State still on their schedule, so it's possible, but not likely.

The teams ahead of USC in the BCS are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Georgia Tech and LSU. Now that Alabama and Florida have clinched their divisions in the SEC, it is almost assured that both of them will be in the BCS. That leaves three open at-large spots. It would be great for USC if TCU and Boise State dropped a game or two, as unlikely as that appears, but it is safe to assume that at least one of them will get a BCS bid. Now that Iowa has lost, it would be great for Ohio State to win the Big Ten, and for Iowa and Penn State to lose yet another game. Competition for at-large spots also comes from the ACC, in Miami and Georgia Tech (as potential loser of the ACC championship game), from the Big East in Pitt, from the Big XII in Oklahoma State. Notre Dame is no longer likely to crack the final 14, so we want to see them winning again, starting this week at Pitt.

If you want to see USC in the Rose Bowl or some other BCS bowl, here are a few outcomes to root for this weekend, in order of my preference:

• USC over Stanford
• Arizona State over Oregon
• Utah over TCU
• Idaho over Boise State ##
• West Virginia over Cincinnati
• Duke over Georgia Tech ##
• Ohio State over Iowa
• Indiana over Penn State ##
• Notre Dame over Pitt
• UCF over Houston
• North Carolina over Miami
• Texas Tech over Oklahoma State
• Arizona over Cal*
• South Carolina over Florida
• Louisiana Tech over LSU ##
• Baylor over Texas ##
• Mississippi State over Alabama ##
• Rutgers over South Florida
• UCLA over Washington State
• Oregon State over Washington**

* I'm not sure this will eventually be what I truly want, but if Oregon wins, I want UA to win too.

** This will shut Washington out of a bowl, but would probably put Oregon State in the Top 25

## As if it could really happen....

I'll be thrilled if USC wins and I get 4 of the first 8 games.

Tuesday Travel Photo (No. 256)

This is one of my quirkier travel photos. I took this between the towers of the Wrigley Building in Chicago. To the left is the clock tower. I don't know what they call the tower to the right. The Chicago River is on the other side of the clock tower. The reason I took this picture, as I walked over to catch the Chicago Water Taxi, was because when I looked up at the enclosed hallway connecting the two towers, it occurred to me that this was the 20th Century equivalent of the rickety old rope bridges you see spanning deep river gorges in so many adventure movies.

I wouldn't cross one of those rope bridges, and I made no plans to try to cross this one, either.

My 2009 Bottom 10 After Week 10

All four winless teams in the FBS stayed perfect this week. Oddly enough, Duke, Virginia and Temple, all of which are oh-fer against the FCS, are in the thick of their conference races. More relevant to the Bottom Ten, we still have two teams - San Jose State and Washington State that have only beaten the FCS (SJ State, Washington State, Akron). Here are my *ten rounding out the bottom:

1. Western Kentucky [1] (0-9) Already got their coach fired. Next loss: @ Louisiana-Monroe
2. Eastern Michigan [2] (0-9) Haven't held any opponent under 24. Next loss: @ W. Michigan
3. New Mexico [3] (0-9) Now they hit the meat of their schedule. Next loss: BYU
4. Rice [4] (0-9) Got moral victory by staying close to Southern Methodist. Next loss: Tulane 
5. San Jose St [5] (1-7) Avoided Saturday loss by losing on Sunday. Next loss: @ Utah St
6. Miami (OH) [9] (1-9) Nearly beat Temple, losers to Villanova. Next loss: Bowling Green
7. Washington St. [6] (1-8) Offense has yet to score 20+ in Pac-10 game. Next loss: UCLA
8. Ball St. [8] (1-8) Bye week was their second-best of the season. Next loss: @ N. Illinois
9. Vanderbilt [10] (2-8) Lost 27-3 to "lackluster" Florida. Next loss: Kentucky
10. North Texas [NR] (2-7) Their wins were over Ball St and W. Kentucky. Next loss: @ FIU
11. *Notre Dame - worst three-year stretch against Navy since Germany in 1943-45.

Dropped out: Akron (2-7) (Finally beat an FBS team - Kent State)

Not far ahead: Florida Int'l (2-7), Maryland (2-7), Memphis (2-7), Akron (2-7), Utah St. (2-7), Arkansas St. (2-6), Florida Atlantic (2-6)

Crummy Game of the Week: Akron over Kent St.

Shocking Redemption of the Week: None

Next week's Crummy Games of the the Week: San Jose State @ Utah St., North Texas @ FIU

Next week's Blowouts of the Week: New Mexico @ BYU

2010 Rose Bowl Tiebreakers

There's a lot of chatter on Twitter about Rose Bowl tiebreakers and USC needing Oregon to lose two more games for USC to get into the Rose Bowl. In fact, there is a reasonably plausible scenario under which USC goes to the Rose Bowl in a three-way tie even if Oregon only loses one more game. If Arizona beats Oregon and USC beats Arizona, with each team winning their remaining games, USC, Arizona and Oregon would each finish in a 3-way tie at 7-2. Head-to-head-to-head would leave them tied at 1-1 against each other. Then you start to look at the three teams' records against the other top Pac-10 teams until you eliminate one. You get to Stanford (Oregon's other loss) before you get to Washington* (Arizona and USC's other loss). USC and Arizona are 1-0 against Stanford, and Oregon is 0-1. That would eliminate Oregon. Then you would look at head-to-head records between USC and Arizona. USC would go. That means that if Arizona goes into the final week of the season at 7-1 in the Pac-10, with USC at 6-2 with wins over Stanford and UCLA, then USC v. Arizona on December 5 would be a de facto Pac-10 conference championship game.

Here comes the math:

Rose Bowl Selection Procedures

If a Conference team is ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) ranking system it shall participate in the National Championship Game designated by the BCS. If that is not the case, the following procedures will determine the Pacific-10 Rose Bowl Representative. The Pacific-10 Rose Bowl representative shall be that member's team with the best won-lost percentage record in Conference games. If, however, the records in Conference games of two or more members are identical, determination of the Rose Bowl representative shall be as follows:

a. Two-Team Tie.
The winner of the game between the two teams shall be the representative.

b. Multiple-Team Ties.
(1) When three or more teams are tied in Conference play, if one has defeated all others, it shall be the Rose Bowl representative. If that is not the case, a comparison of the tied teams' records against the other tied teams shall be made and the team having the best record against the other tied teams shall be the Rose Bowl representative. If two or more teams are still tied after this comparison, the appropriate two-team or multiple-team tie-breaking procedures shall be repeated among those teams still under consideration.

(2) If more than two teams are still tied after the process above is completed, each remaining tied team's record against the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings shall be compared, with the procedure continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, each team's collective record against the tied teams as a group shall be used.

If at any point in the process the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure shall be applied.

If more than two teams are still tied after comparing their records all the way through the Conference standings, the team among the tied teams with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings shall be the Rose Bowl representative.

If a tie remains, the teams most recently earning Rose Bowl or Bowl Championship Series automatic selection shall be eliminated.

http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102802aai.html

This scenario fails if Arizona loses to anyone other than USC, or if USC loses another game. But if it plays out like that, USC v. Oregon is no longer the Pac-10 Game of the Year. Oregon @ Arizona on November 21 is the Pac-10 Game of the Year. If Arizona and USC keep winning, Arizona @ USC on December 5 will be the Pac-10 Game of the Year.

* If, however, Washington wins its last three (@ Oregon State, Washington State and Cal) and Stanford loses to both USC and Cal, then both will finish 5-4, so the tiebreaker will continue until you look at BCS standings where USC, which is already ahead of both, would have a clear advantage if they were 10-2 and Oregon and Arizona have dropped to 9-3.

My College Football Top 25, Week 11

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot after week ten would look like:

1. Texas (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. Florida (3)
4. TCU (6)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Boise State (4)
7. Georgia Tech (11)
8. Pitt (14)
9. Oregon (8)  
10. LSU (9)
11. USC (12)
12. Ohio State (15)
13. Houston (13)
14. Miami (16)
15. Utah (17)
16. Oklahoma State (18)
17. Iowa (7)
18. Penn State (10)
19. Arizona (21)
20. Virginia Tech (22)
21. South Florida (24)
22. Wisconsin (25)
23. BYU (NR)
24. Stanford (NR)
25. Oregon State (NR)

I dropped: Notre Dame (19), Oklahoma (20), Cal (23)

I almost went with: Notre Dame, Clemson, Auburn, West Virginia

They're higher than they belong, but who should be higher? TCU, Oregon, LSU, USC, Ohio State, Georgia Tech

I knew it!: Iowa*

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Temple, Kansas State

* several weeks ago

Remaining Unbeatens After Week 10

We started the tenth week of play with 7 undefeated teams in the NCAA's FBS. Now there are six.

• #1 Florida - beat Vanderbilt. Next game: @ South Carolina
• #2 Alabama - beat LSU. Next game: @ Mississippi State
• #3 Texas - beat UCF. Next game: @ Baylor
• #4 Cincinnati - beat Connecticut. Next game: West Virginia
• #5 Boise State - won @ Louisiana Tech. Next game: Idaho
• #6 TCU - won @ San Diego State. Next game: Utah
• #8 Iowa - lost to Northwestern

It's possible they will all survive. My best guess: we'll be down to four. I think TCU, Florida and Cincinnati are going to go 1-2. We'll see.

My College Football Results, 2009 Week 10

My picks this week were 10-13, but I went 5-4 on my money picks. On the season I am now 88-100-1 against the spread overall, but 38-32 in games I actually thought were worth wagering on. Here's how I did.

W Virginia Tech @ East Carolina +11½
L #5 Boise State @ Louisiana Tech +21
L * UCF @ #2 Texas -34½
L Syracuse @ #14 Pittsburgh -21½
L #24 Wisconsin @ Indiana +10½
L Virginia @ #16 Miami (FL) -13½
W Northwestern @ #8 Iowa -16½
W * #25 BYU @ Wyoming +13
W Navy @ #19 Notre Dame -12½
W * #7 Oregon @ Stanford +7
W * #15 Ohio St. @ #11 Penn St. -5
W * #18 Oklahoma St. @ Iowa St. +7
L Wake Forest @ #10 Georgia Tech -14½
W Washington St. @ #21 Arizona -32½
L * #9 LSU @ #3 Alabama -7½
L #6 TCU @ San Diego St. +24½
W * New Mexico @ #17 Utah -27½
L * Oregon St. @ #23 California -7
L Vanderbilt @ #1 Florida -35
L #13 Houston @ Tulsa +1½
W Connecticut @ #4 Cincinnati -17½
L * #20 Oklahoma @ Nebraska +5½
L #12 USC @ Arizona St. +10

In unranked Pac-10 play, the fifth conference game this week is:
W Washington @ UCLA -4½

I was mildly surprised to see Northwestern win straight up. I was not that surprised to see Ohio State and Stanford upset Penn State and Oregon. Shocked to see Cal lose - but not under the circumstances. I was more than a bit surprised to see Nebraska knock off the Sooners.

USC Arizona State Game Notes 11-7-09

As you watch Arizona State host USC tonight, you might see some of these interesting bits and pieces:

• USC is 6-2 (3-2 Pac-10), ranked #12 in the AP and BCS and #13 in the Coaches' poll
• Arizona State is 4-4 (2-3 Pac-10),unranked.
• USC is favored by 11½ points
• Kickoff: 5:12 p.m. PDT at Sun Devil Stadium (71,706), Tempe, Arizona
• Broadcast: nationally on ABC-TV
• ASU is USC’s newest and least played Pac-10 rival. dating back to 1978
• This will be the 26th meeting between Arizona State and USC
• The Trojans hold a 16-9 lead.
• The Sun Devils have not beaten USC since 1999
• That's the such streak in the Pac-10.
• USC is 8-5 at Sun Devil Stadium
• USC has won 9 straight over the Sun Devils, including the last 4 in Tempe.
• Last game: USC 28, ASU 0 at the Coliseum
• Fourteen of Pete Carroll's seventeen losses have come on the road
• USC is 88-12 in its last 100 games
• This is the 100th consecutive game the Trojans have been ranked in the AP Top 25
• Pete Carroll is 94-17 at USC. That's the best among active coaches.
• Carroll has never lost a game in November (27-0)
• Carroll is 60-12 in Pac-10 games
• That ties Dick Tomey for 9th on the all-time Pac-10 victories list
• ASU head coach Dennis Erickson is 167-79-1 (.678).
• He is 19-14 (.576) in his 3 seasons at ASU
• Erickson has coached three Pac-10 teams against USC
• Washington State and Oregon State are the others
• He is 1-6 against the Trojans
• Three USC players come from Arizona
• The Sun Devils have 41 players from California
• 25 different Sun Devils have made their debut in 2009.
• 13 different Sun Devils have made their first career starts this season.
• Senior Dexter Davis' 46 straight starts is the most by a Sun Devil since 1984.
• ASU has 24 seniors on its roster, tied for 8th most in the nation.
• ASU's Mike Nixon has been named a quarterfinalist for the Lott Trophy.
• USC’s 2009 schedule currently is ranked the nation’s fifth toughest by the Sagarin rankings.
• USC started the season with 6 road games in their first 9
• USC has a streak of 7 consecutive Pac-10 crowns (a league record)
• USC also has a streak of 7 straight BCS bowls (an NCAA record)
• USC has played in 4 consecutive Rose Bowls.
• No team has been to 5 straight
• USC is ranked 24th nationally in rushing offense (191.0)
• USC is averaging 5.4 yards per rush in 2009.
• USC is ranked second nationally in sacks (3.6, first in Pac-10)
• USC is seventh in tackles for loss (8.3, first in Pac-10).
• USC is third nationally in punt returns (18.0, first in Pac-10)
• USC is allowing opponents just 1.8 yards per punt return.
• The Sun Devils have the Pac-10’s top rushing defense (80.1, fourth nationally)
• ASU also have the Pac-10's best total defense (296.0, 18th nationally).
• USC OL Jeff Byers has been named a finalist for the Wuerffel Trophy.
• USC is coming off the most-lopsided loss of the Pete Carroll era, 47-20 at Oregon.
• USC last lost consecutive games in 2001.
• From 2003 to 2008, USC lost 7 games by a total of 26 points.
• Last week, the Trojans lost by 27.
• Last time USC lost by 3 TDs or more: 1997 at Arizona State (35-7)
• Last time USC gave up more than 40 points: the 2006 Rose Bowl (41-38, loss to Texas)
• Last time USC surrendered 47 points or more: 1996 (48 in OT to both Arizona State and UCLA). Last time in regulation: 1991 (Cal 52-30)
• Last time USC gave up more than Oregon's 391 rushing yards: the 1977 Bluebonnet Bowl (Texas A&M 486).
• USC injury update: LB Malcolm Smith (shoulder), wide receiver David Ausberry (calf) and safety Drew McAllister (hip) are out. Linebacker Jarvis Jones (neck), tight end Anthony McCoy (ankle) and defensive end Nick Perry (knee) are questionable. Defensive end Everson Griffen (turf toe), tailback Allen Bradford (sore knee), tailback Joe McKnight (hamstring), defensive tackle Armond Armstead (wrist), wide receiver Damian Williams (glute muscle) and linebacker Chris Galippo (neck) are expected to play; TB Marc Tyler (toe), TE James Boyd (knee), WR Scott Stephens (knee), TB Stafon Johnson (throat), DT Hebron Fangupo (ankle), CB Marshall Jones (neck), OG Martin Coleman (foot), CB Shareece Wright (ineligible) are out
• Arizona injury report: WR T.J. Simpson (ankle) is out, perhaps for the season. DT Corey Adams (back), CB Omar Bolden (knee) and C Thomas Altieri (knee) are questionable. TB Dimitri Nance (shoulder) and WR Gerell Robinson (ankle) could be limited in practice. WR Kerry Taylor (hamstring) is expected to return.

USC's weekly football release.

Arizona State's weekly football release.

Fight On!  Beat the Sun Devils! 

College Football 2009: 10 Games I Look Forward To In Week 10

I have a charity thing tonight, so I might miss all or part of the USC game at Arizona State, but I'll TiVo it. That's the most important game to me this week, of course, but as always, there are a few other games I'm interested in following. Here are the ten that look most interesting:

1. #12 USC @  Arizona State: This is USC's last road game of 2009. The road has been rough on the Trojans, who start the season with six road games in their first nine, but Arizona State is not as tough as some others in the Pac-10. ASU has won four and lost four. They have home wins over Idaho State, La.-Monroe and Washington. The other win was at Washington State, by 13. They lost at home to Oregon State and Cal, and lost at Georgia and Stanford. The Sun Devils lead the Pac-10 in total defense and rushing defense, and are 2nd in scoring defense. Their passing defense is 5th in the conference, but their offense is 7th or 8th in every category. This is the opposite of a trap game and I'm expecting USC to come out strong. Go Trojans!
   .
2. #7 Oregon @ Stanford: I'm torn. Part of me wants to see the Ducks kick butt the rest of the year. Part of me is holding out hope for the Ducks to lose to Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State, to send USC to the Rose Bowl. USC can at least share in their 8th straight Pac-10 championship if the Ducks drop a pair, and this is as good a place to start as any. Letdown game? History says yes. The rebound/letdown phenomenom in college football is as real as real gets. Stanford comes off a bye, plays a ground-control game that contrasts Oregon's spread offense, and they have the conference's top rusher in Toby Gerhart. Plus, they need one win to be bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. I would love to see 7 or 8 Pac-10 teams in bowls, and I want USC to share in or win the Pac-10 so go Indians!
   .
3. #15 Ohio State @ #11 Penn State: I'm not so sure why people are so impressed with Penn State. Sure, they are 8-1, but they have played all of one ranked team in those nine games, and it was at home, and they lost. I think the Buckeyes are the better team. I hope the Buckeyes are the better team. I really need Ohio State to win this one so that I can enjoy a decent bowl game this year, so go Bucks!
   .
4. #8 LSU @ #3 Alabama: This is the game everyone will be watching, but to a USC fan, it is one of the few games involving ranked teams this week where we couldn't care less how the final score turns out. However, if LSU wins and goes on to defeat Florida in the SEC championship, it could create all sorts of chaos in the BCS. Texas v. Boise State or TCU for the national championship? It could even pave the way for an LSU/USC Sugar Bowl, which I would dig. I can't bring myself to root for LSU, however, so Roll Tide!
   . 
5. #6 TCU @ San Diego State: Frankly, the Aztecs have not a bit of a chance, but TCU losing a game - especially a game other than Utah - would boost USC's BCS bowl chances, so go San Diego State!
   .
6. Wake Forest @ #10 Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech should win this, but a Demon Deacan victory would be great, because it would eliminate the possibility of an ACC runner-up getting into a BCS bowl ahead of my Trojans if USC wins out. If Georgia Tech drops one here and loses the ACC conference championship game to Clemson or some other team, they would finish 10-3 and go to a lesser bowl. An 11-2 Georgia Tech might get picked ahead of USC. Go Wake Forest!
   .
7. Northwestern @ #7 Iowa: No upset this week would make me happier than Northwestern over Iowa. It sounds implausible, but consider this: Iowa at home this year has beaten Northern Iowa by 1, Arkansas State by 3, and Michigan by 2. This is not a dominant team at home. Could Northwestern do it? They certainly are better than Arkansas State and Northern Iowa, and probably Michigan, too. Go Wildcats!
   .
8. Navy @ Notre Dame: I don't understand the big spread in this game, and honestly, I'm not sure how to root in this one. This weekend has the possible makings of a Perfect Day, with 0-5 UCLA playing Washington, which could go either way, USC @ Arizona State, which could break our way, and then this. On one hand, USC wants Notre Dame to stay ranked to boost USC's SoS. On the other hand, Notre Dame will steal a BCS bid if they get to #14 in the BCS. Navy has won just one game against the Irish in my entire life, but it wasn't long ago. I'm going to root for it to happen again. Go Midshipmen!
   .
9. #18 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State: The Cowboys are vastly superior to the Cyclones, but I want every team that doesn't win the Big XII to finish with three or more losses, and that means I want Oklahoma State to lose one more. This probably won't be it. Most likely, it'll be the Sooners who get them, but for now, go Cyclones!
   .
10. UCF @ #2 Texas: I'll root for Central Florida, but I'm realistic. Texas isn't likely to lose another game this season. If they do, I just hope and pray it isn't in the Big XII championship game. Meanwhile, if UCF, Baylor, A&M or Kansas can get 'em, more power to them. Go Knights!

I'll probably also check the scores of Washington @ UCLA, Oregon State @ Cal, Virginia @ Miami, Houston @ Tulsa, Vanderbilt @ Florida, Connecticut @ Cincinnati, Syracuse @ Pitt and Oklahoma @ Nebraska.

The Trojan Fan's Rooting Interests for Week 10

The Trojan fans' rooting interests for week 10 are much different than in prior weeks. The latest BCS rankings have USC at #12. At a minimum, USC wants to win its remaining four games and play in the Holiday Bowl, but a BCS bowl bid as an at-large team is a possibility. A Rose Bowl bid would require either  a 2007-like collapse by Oregon or 4 straight ass-whippings by Oregon, along with a 2007-like collapse by the currently unbeaten teams, including, probably (or I should say, improbably) Boise State. My best guess is that Oregon will win out, but they have a trap game today at Stanford, plus a road game at Arizona and a rivalry game against Oregon State still on their schedule.

I want USC to get back into the top ten in the BCS and get a bid to the Sugar Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. The four BCS at-large teams are going to be, in all likelihood, the SEC runnerup, TCU and/or Boise State, and one or two second-place teams from the Big XII, Big Ten, Big East, SEC or Pac-10.

If they win their last four games, USC, at 10-2, would be attractive to the Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl when compared to Ohio State (but maybe not Penn State) from the Big Ten. They probably would be ahead of the ACC runnerup - unless the Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl was interested in a 2-loss Miami. They are toast if Texas loses the Big XII championship game. The Longhorns would get the at-large bid for sure; however, if Texas wins the Big XII, the Big XII might not even have an eligible at-large team.

The teams ahead of USC in the BCS are: Florida, Texas, Alabama, Cincinnati, Boise State, TCU, Oregon, Iowa, LSU, Georgia Tech, Penn State. At least six of those eleven, and probably seven, will be automatic bids. One of those will be out. The winner of Florida v. Alabama or LSU is probably in the title game, and the loser is probably an at-large pick, but the third SEC teams is not eligible. Realistically, that means USC only needs one or two teams to drop. It also needs Notre Dame to stay below #14 in the BCS.

Outside the BCS for a moment, and looking at the Pac-10 bowl arrangements, USC needs to aim no lower than the Holiday Bowl. San Diego wouldn't benefit that much from the Trojans coming to town, but USC has never played this bowl, and it would be tempting for Holiday Bowl officials to take them to play, for example, the Sooners, even if USC finishes tied for second, without the tie-breaker, or even third in the Pac-10. But to be safe, USC needs to finish 7-2 and alone in 2nd place in the Pac-10. If USC loses another game, it might be the Sun Bowl for USC, in El Paso. Ugh. I'd probably just fly out and back same day for that one. El Paso isn't one of my favorite family destinations.

I'm going to hope to hell that the ACC Atlantic champion doesn't win the ACC. Clemson in the BCS would really hurt USC's chances for an at-large bid unless Georgia Tech loses a couple between now and then. The same goes for a Nebraska or Kansas State win in the Big 12 championship, unless Texas lost one before then. A Pitt winout, including a December 5 win over an undefeated Cincinnati would also be a tough blow to a 10-2 USC. An 11-1 Penn State certainly would get in over USC if Iowa was in the Rose Bowl. I'm not sure whether an 11-1 Iowa would get in ahead of USC if Ohio State was in the Rose Bowl.

USC's worst case scenario, aside from more USC losses, would be Clemson, Nebraska and Pitt all winning on December 5 to win their conferences, along with TCU and Boise State winning out, and Ohio State winning the Big Ten. That could leave unbeaten TCU and Boise State, plus one-loss Texas, Alabama, Iowa and Cincinnati competing for four at-large spots. No way is USC in that mix, and Penn State and Georgia Tech would be out, too.

So who do I want to root for and against? I want teams in front of us in the BCS to lose - for the most part. I no longer really care about anyone in the SEC (although LSU over Alabama would create a very interesting scenario that would renew my interest in SEC games). I maybe do not want Texas to lose - certainly not in the Big 12 title game. I probably do not want Ohio State to win the Big Ten - unless Iowa loses a game other than Ohio State. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten and Iowa and Penn State both finish with 2 or more losses, that is a good thing. So if Northwestern pulls off the upset tomorrow, I'm rooting hard for Ohio State all year. I want everyone outside the Big Six to lose, although Boise St. remaining undefeated props up Oregon, which makes us look a bit stronger. I want anyone who isn't leading their conference, but who has 1 or 2 losses, to lose. To try to get there, here are a few game outcomes USC fans should root for, in order of my preference:

• USC over Arizona State
• San Diego State over TCU
• Northwestern over Iowa
• Ohio State over Penn State
• Louisiana Tech over Boise State
• Wake Forest over Georgia Tech
• U. Conn over Cincinnati
• Virginia over Miami
• Tulsa over Houston
• New Mexico over Utah
• Syracuse over Pitt
• Louisville over West Virginia
• Notre Dame over Navy
• Iowa State over Oklahoma State
• San Jose State over Nevada
• Vanderbilt over Florida
• UCF over Texas
• LSU over Alabama

There are a lot of unlikely outcomes in that list.

I'm not sure how to root in the Pac-10. I'll assume that USC wins out, making it unimportant to root against any team competing for 2nd place in the conference - USC has beaten Cal and Oregon State, and have yet to play Stanford and Arizona. That means I want ranked Pac-10 teams to keep winning (although an Oregon upset would still be great), and then I want teams with 4 or 5 wins to become bowl-eligible. That means I'd probably like to see

• USC over Arizona State
• Stanford over Oregon* (but only if the Ducks plan to lose another game, too...)
• Arizona over Washington State
• Cal over Oregon State (OSU needs a 6th win, but can get it against the Cougars)
• Washington over UCLA

Let the games begin, starting with Boise State against Louisiana Tech, which, oddly enough, is in a conference called the Mountain West - which is almost as strange as the Atlanta Braves spending all those years in the NL West and only slightly stranger than it would be to see Texas in the Pac-10.

Great Moments in Sports Betting History, 11-5-09

This evening, Virginia Tech was an 11½ point favorite at East Carolina.

Late in the game, East Carolina trailed 13-3, facing a third-and-13 from their own 16-yard line. They ran a short pass to the sideline, and the receiver got his hand on the ball but could not haul it in. This should have set up a 4th down punt with 2:25 to play, upon which Virginia Tech would run out the clock to win by 10. And fail to cover.

However, Patrick Pinkney's deflected pass ended up in the hands of Hokie defensive back Rashad Carmichael, who held onto the ball for an interception and a Virginia Tech first down at the ECU 13-yard line. Three downs later, the Hokies' Matt Waldron booted an almost-meaningless 31-yard field goal. But it wasn't meaningless in Vegas.

Final score: Virginia Tech 16, East Carolina 3. Covered.

My College Football Picks, 2009 Week 10

Last week was terrible, and I am now 78-87-1 on the season against the spread overall, which sounds pretty weak, but I'm still 33-28 in games I actually thought were worth wagering on. Here are the spreads on this week's games involving ranked teams. My picks are in bold, with the nine games I plan to put real money on marked by an asterisk:

Thursday, Nov 5
#22 Virginia Tech @ East Carolina +11½

Friday, Nov 6
#5 Boise State @ Louisiana Tech +21

Saturday, Nov 7
* UCF @ #2 Texas -34½
Syracuse @ #14 Pittsburgh -21½
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana +10½
Virginia @ #16 Miami (FL) -13½
Northwestern @ #8 Iowa -16½
* #25 BYU @ Wyoming +13
Navy @ #19 Notre Dame -12½
* #7 Oregon @ Stanford +7
* #15 Ohio St. @ #11 Penn St. -5
* #18 Oklahoma St. @ Iowa St. +7
Wake Forest @ #10 Georgia Tech -14½
Washington St. @ #21 Arizona -32½
* #9 LSU @ #3 Alabama -7½
#6 TCU @ San Diego St. +24½
* New Mexico @ #17 Utah -27½
* Oregon St. @ #23 California -7
Vanderbilt @ #1 Florida -35
#13 Houston @ Tulsa +1½
Connecticut @ #4 Cincinnati -17½
* #20 Oklahoma @ Nebraska +5½
#12 USC @ Arizona St. +10

In unranked Pac-10 play, the fifth conference game this week is:
Washington @ UCLA -4½

This week, no byes and no virtual byes. Everyone in action is playing and is playing within their own subdivision.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds