As We Await the New BCS Standings

I haven't seen any updated bowl projections yet, but none will have USC in the championship game. To keep USC's extremely dim hope of playing for the national title, we really could have used wins by Connecticut, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Oklahoma State. It would have been nice to see Missouri win a bit bigger, too. When the score was 21-0, I could have foreseen a Kansas poll plummet. At 36-28, not so much. At this point, the chances of USC getting to the #2 spot in the BCS are more than slim. To get there, the Trojans need to move past 9 of the 10 teams ahead of them in last week's BCS rankings:

1. LSU - lost; ends the season ahead of USC with a win next week;
2. Kansas - lost; maybe ends the season below USC if USC wins next week;
3. West Virginia - won; will finish ahead of USC unless they lose to Pitt next week;
4. Missouri - won; will finish ahead of USC unless they get clobbered by Oklahoma next week;
5. Ohio St. - done for the season; will finish ahead of USC;
6. Arizona St. - lost; will drop below USC;
7. Georgia - done for the season; probably will finish ahead of USC;
8. Virginia Tech - won; will finish ahead of USC with a win next week;
9. Oregon - lost; will drop below USC;
10. Oklahoma - won; might stay ahead of USC.

I don't think Pitt can beat West Virginia. I think that even if they beat UCLA handily, the Trojans end up behind West Virginia, Ohio State, Georgia and the Big XII champion. Best plausible scenario: Tennessee, Oklahoma and Boston College win their conference title games. If so, the BCS final standings would be something like: (1) West Virginia; (2) Ohio State; (3) Georgia; (4) Oklahoma; (5) USC; (6) Missouri; (7) Kansas.

Kansas, with an 11-1 record and the last BCS conference team to lose, might not get a BCS bowl bid if Oklahoma beats Missouri. The loser of the SEC title game is out, too. If that's Tennessee, no tears will be shed outside of Knoxville. If it's LSU, the Bayou will absolutely freak out. More potential weirdness: if Tennessee wins the SEC and if the Rose Bowl selects Illinois, it could leave Missouri out of the BCS mix entirely, making the last two #1 teams (assuming that Mizzou is ahead of West Virginia today) out of the BCS bowls. How? If Georgia finishes #3 or #4, and Hawaii ends up in the top 12 (or the top 16 and ahead of Boston College or Tennessee as ACC or SEC champs), then there will be only two at-large bids to give. If one goes to Illinois, and the other goes to Oklahoma's opponent in the Fiesta Bowl, that spot won't go to Missouri.

How would Illinois get a bid? Ohio State in the title game would give the Rose Bowl the first at-large pick. They could take Illinois and keep the Pac-10/Big 10 tradition alive. They can only take 9-3 Illinois if the Illini finish in the top 14. They should move up to #14 today, up from #17 by passing Oregon, Texas and Virginia. Maybe just #15 if Tennessee moves ahead of them. Next week, they stand a good chance of moving up another spot or two. In addition to keeping the traditional conference alignment, an Illinois bid would bring fans to Pasadena. Illinois fans last got to the Rose Bowl 24 years ago.

But Georgia v. USC would be intriguing. In addition to being an SEC/Pac-10 matchup, it would feature the two hottest teams in college football right now, according to most of the analysts. The two teams that make #1 and #2 glad we don't have a playoff. Personally, I'd love to see it, except that it will make good tickets more expensive. Not that USC-Illinois ducats would be cheap.

Here's my latest guess projections about the BCS matchups:

BCS Title: West Virginia (Big East) v. Ohio State (Big Ten)
Rose Bowl: USC (Pac-10) v. Georgia (automatic)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (ACC) v. Missouri (at-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (Big XII) v. Arizona State (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: LSU (SEC) v. Hawaii (automatic)

But this would not shock me:

BCS Title: West Virginia (Big East) v. Ohio State (Big Ten)
Rose Bowl: USC (Pac-10) v. Illinois (at-large)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (ACC) v. Georgia (automatic)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (Big XII) v. Arizona State (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: LSU (SEC) v. Hawaii (automatic)