Could an 11-1 USC get banished to the Holiday Bowl?

They could if four very plausible mild upsets occur. Here's how it could go down:

Florida State beats Florida, and Oklahoma beats Texas Tech. BCS rankings then look like this: (1) Alabama, (2) Oklahoma, (3) Texas, (4) Texas Tech, (5) USC.

Florida beats Alabama for the SEC, and Missouri beats Oklahoma for the Big XII. Utah wins out. Oregon State wins out. Missouri and Oregon State get automatic bids as conference champions. Final BCS rankings look like this: (1) Texas, (2) Texas Tech, (3) Alabama, (4) Utah, (5) USC.

Here's the final shakeout:

BCS Rule 1: Texas and Texas Tech get automatic bids to the BCS title game.

BCS Rule 2: The six conference champions get automatic bids: Missouri to the Fiesta Bowl, Florida to the Sugar Bowl, the ACC champ to the Orange Bowl, the Big East champ to the Sugar or Orange, and Oregon State against the Big Ten champ (Penn State or Michigan State) in the Rose Bowl.

BCS Rule 3: Utah gets an automatic bid.

BCS Rule 7: There is one at-large spot. Alabama, at 12-1 and ranked third in the BCS, gets it automatically.

USC plays Oklahoma in the Holiday Bowl.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_selection_procedures.html

Comments

[Kenny]

This possibility is over. Texas or Oklahoma win the Big XII south unless they lose, and Texas Tech will not play in the championship after that loss to Oklahoma, so if Missouri gets in it will be at the expense of Texas or Oklahoma. That means USC goes to a BCS bowl unless they lose.

[Cap]

Most likely the winner of the Big XII south will win the Big XII and go to the BCS title game. Getting another loss or two between Alabama and Florida would be great, because otherwise, the only loss there is in their head to head play, from which a winning-out winner would get to Miami.

Getting past the Big XII might be less complicated. USC might only need Missouri to win the Big XII title game. On the other hand, if there is a 11-1 Texas or an 11-1 Oklahoma sitting out, they still could go to the BCS title game, like Nebraska and Oklahoma in years past, to play an SEC champ.

If the SEC champ has two losses, they are out. The SEC loser, with one loss, is also probably out. That could mean another strange circumstance. Maybe an all-Big XII game. Maybe a rematch. Maybe you can win your conference and go on to lose the BCS title to your runner up. To avoid those shenanigans, voters might bump USC, especially if the Trojans throw their 4th or 5th shutout of the season against UCLA.

[Cow]

Not to mention, ugh at a Texas-Texas Tech title game. I hate the BCS.

Then again, you could have a 150-team playoff and my Huskies wouldn't make it; they'd choose some FCS schools first. :)