It's rivalry week! I'll be paying attention to the following games:
Tonight:
Texas A&M @ #4 Texas. The Aggies are terrible this season, but they've beaten Texas twice in a row, including unranked A&M wins over #11 Texas in 2006, and over #13 Texas in 2007. I don't think the history is enough to make up the 35 points by which the odds makers think Texas is better than Texas A&M, and the Aggies have been terrible on the road in conference, but whatever. Go Aggies! As for Texas, they are #2 in the BCS, but they could easily win this game against a rival, then watch see #1 Alabama lose, but still end up #3 in the BCS. Sounds fair, right?
Friday:
West Virginia @ #25 Pitt, which also decided so much last year and might decide little this year. The loser of this game is out of the rankings for the year, and out of the mix for a share of the Big East championship, but Cincinnati will win the Big East unless they get tripped up against Syracuse. Last year Pitt's huge upset at West Virginia knocked the Mountaineers out of the BCS championship game. So far, the revenge games in 2008 have gone well for the revenge-seekers. I expect the same tomorrow.
#9 Boise State @ Fresno State. Boise State could become the second team to finish the season unbeaten. The Broncos are 22-1 in conference under Chris Peterson, so it looks good for them. Unfortunately, they might finish the season 12-0 and be rewarded with a trip to their own blue field for the Humanitarian Bowl, even if they get to #7 or #8 in the polls, because Utah's done at 12-0, and ranked ahead of the Broncos. Of course, the Bulldogs are known for playing big in big games, so 11-1 remains quite possible.
Saturday:
#13 Georgia @ Georgia Tech, loser for 7 straight years. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a big emotional win over Miami, but have fresh injury problems. This game has no conference title implications, and no BCS bowl implications, so it's fallen off the radar. In fact, Georgia Tech fans might care less about this game and more about ...
Virginia @ Virginia Tech. If Virginia Tech wins this game, it wins the ACC Coastal Division with a 5-3 record, winning either a head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia Tech, or a three-way tiebreaker with Miami if the Hurricanes beat NC State, by virtue of a 4-1 record within the division (GT is 2-3, and Miami is 3-2). If Virginia wins, they will be bowl-eligible, and Georgia Tech will win the ACC Coastal. I'm rooting for the Cavaliers.
usc @ Clemson. I honestly couldn't care less which team wins this game. It would be slightly enjoyable to see the SEC lose another out of conference game, so I'll probably root for the Tigers.
Kansas @ #12 Missouri. The Border War, which decided so much last year, means almost nothing this year. Win, lose or draw, Missouri has won the Big XII North and will play Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech next week. Missouri's bowl bid will depend more on next week's title game than this game, but a loss could drop them all the way to the Sun Bowl. A win could lead to maybe a Gator Bowl, Holiday Bowl or even Cotton Bowl invitation.
Auburn @ #1 Alabama, which hasn't won in 6 meetings. For the first time in a long time, Auburn comes to Tuscaloosa with the weaker team. Auburn needs this win to play in a bowl, but none of Auburn's wins came against FBS teams that are bowl-eligible. What does that tell you? How about this: in the 31 times that the Iron Bowl has featured a top-ten team against a team not in the top ten, the higher ranked team is 25-6.
#2 Florida @ #23 Florida State, loser of four in a row. This is one of the big games where an upset gives USC a chance to play for the national title again. Boston College and Wake Forest already won in Tallahassee this season, so there is little reason to believe Florida can't do it, too. The Gators are heavily favored, but this is a tough road game late in the season against a long and bitter rival.
#19 Oregon @ #17 Oregon State. Since freshman tailback Jacquizz Rodgers got going, the Beavers are 8-1, with the sole loss coming on a late field goal @ #6 Utah. Rodgers is listed as doubtful, however, and the Beavers will have trouble replacing him with someone quite as effective. For most Beaver fans, this is the biggest Oregon State game of their lives. It's this simple: if Oregon State wins, it wins the Pac-10, either outright, or via the head-to-head tiebreaker with USC, and the Beavers make the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades. If Oregon wins, the Beavers need USC to lose to UCLA next week. If UCLA beats USC to create a three-way tie atop the Pac-10 standings, the Beavers would win the Pac-10 tiebreaker and go to the Rose Bowl. Because all three teams would be 1-1 against each other, the next tiebreaker scenario would be common record against other Pac-10 teams, starting with the 4th place team. Oregon lost to Cal (and everyone beat Arizona, just in case the Bears lose to Washington and the Wildcats beat ASU, creating a tie for 4th place). USC and Oregon State won. That gets us back to a head-to-head, which Oregon State wins, and the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl. Got it?
#2 Oklahoma @ #11 Oklahoma State. Oklahoma leads the Bedlam Series all-time 78-17-7. The home team has done very well in most major Big XII South games this year, and the Cowboys' two losses came @ Texas and @ Texas Tech. The Sooners have a tough game ahead of them, and this could really complicate things. An Oklahoma win probably puts the Sooners in the Big XII title game, which could launch them into the BCS title game. A loss, and suddenly Texas Tech probably wins the Big XII South, but Texas becomes a favorite to play for the national title. Sounds fair, right?
Notre Dame @ #5 USC, which is riding its 6 year win streak. The Irish come into L.A. with a busted line, five losses, lousy play-calling, and a one-game losing streak that began at home against Syracuse. Syracuse! The Trojans have a lot to play for: their longest winning streak in the series, a BCS bowl bid, and maybe THE BCS bowl bid. In Charlie Weis's years at Notre Dame, USC's margin of victory went from 3 to 20 to 38. At that rate, this year's final margin would be 57. Unthinkable, though the Irish once beat USC by 51. This morning, the Irish were 32 point underdogs, up from 27 at the beginning of the week. Last time Notre Dame's opponent was favored by more than 24 was 33 years ago. Last week's loss to Syracuse was the first ever for Notre Dame against a team with 8 or more losses. Their 14 losses in 2007-2008 are the most ever over a two-year span.
Good stuff.
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