The Trojan fans' rooting interests for week 10 are much different than in prior weeks. The latest BCS rankings have USC at #12. At a minimum, USC wants to win its remaining four games and play in the Holiday Bowl, but a BCS bowl bid as an at-large team is a possibility. A Rose Bowl bid would require either a 2007-like collapse by Oregon or 4 straight ass-whippings by Oregon, along with a 2007-like collapse by the currently unbeaten teams, including, probably (or I should say, improbably) Boise State. My best guess is that Oregon will win out, but they have a trap game today at Stanford, plus a road game at Arizona and a rivalry game against Oregon State still on their schedule.
I want USC to get back into the top ten in the BCS and get a bid to the Sugar Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. The four BCS at-large teams are going to be, in all likelihood, the SEC runnerup, TCU and/or Boise State, and one or two second-place teams from the Big XII, Big Ten, Big East, SEC or Pac-10.
If they win their last four games, USC, at 10-2, would be attractive to the Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl when compared to Ohio State (but maybe not Penn State) from the Big Ten. They probably would be ahead of the ACC runnerup - unless the Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl was interested in a 2-loss Miami. They are toast if Texas loses the Big XII championship game. The Longhorns would get the at-large bid for sure; however, if Texas wins the Big XII, the Big XII might not even have an eligible at-large team.
The teams ahead of USC in the BCS are: Florida, Texas, Alabama, Cincinnati, Boise State, TCU, Oregon, Iowa, LSU, Georgia Tech, Penn State. At least six of those eleven, and probably seven, will be automatic bids. One of those will be out. The winner of Florida v. Alabama or LSU is probably in the title game, and the loser is probably an at-large pick, but the third SEC teams is not eligible. Realistically, that means USC only needs one or two teams to drop. It also needs Notre Dame to stay below #14 in the BCS.
Outside the BCS for a moment, and looking at the Pac-10 bowl arrangements, USC needs to aim no lower than the Holiday Bowl. San Diego wouldn't benefit that much from the Trojans coming to town, but USC has never played this bowl, and it would be tempting for Holiday Bowl officials to take them to play, for example, the Sooners, even if USC finishes tied for second, without the tie-breaker, or even third in the Pac-10. But to be safe, USC needs to finish 7-2 and alone in 2nd place in the Pac-10. If USC loses another game, it might be the Sun Bowl for USC, in El Paso. Ugh. I'd probably just fly out and back same day for that one. El Paso isn't one of my favorite family destinations.
I'm going to hope to hell that the ACC Atlantic champion doesn't win the ACC. Clemson in the BCS would really hurt USC's chances for an at-large bid unless Georgia Tech loses a couple between now and then. The same goes for a Nebraska or Kansas State win in the Big 12 championship, unless Texas lost one before then. A Pitt winout, including a December 5 win over an undefeated Cincinnati would also be a tough blow to a 10-2 USC. An 11-1 Penn State certainly would get in over USC if Iowa was in the Rose Bowl. I'm not sure whether an 11-1 Iowa would get in ahead of USC if Ohio State was in the Rose Bowl.
USC's worst case scenario, aside from more USC losses, would be Clemson, Nebraska and Pitt all winning on December 5 to win their conferences, along with TCU and Boise State winning out, and Ohio State winning the Big Ten. That could leave unbeaten TCU and Boise State, plus one-loss Texas, Alabama, Iowa and Cincinnati competing for four at-large spots. No way is USC in that mix, and Penn State and Georgia Tech would be out, too.
So who do I want to root for and against? I want teams in front of us in the BCS to lose - for the most part. I no longer really care about anyone in the SEC (although LSU over Alabama would create a very interesting scenario that would renew my interest in SEC games). I maybe do not want Texas to lose - certainly not in the Big 12 title game. I probably do not want Ohio State to win the Big Ten - unless Iowa loses a game other than Ohio State. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten and Iowa and Penn State both finish with 2 or more losses, that is a good thing. So if Northwestern pulls off the upset tomorrow, I'm rooting hard for Ohio State all year. I want everyone outside the Big Six to lose, although Boise St. remaining undefeated props up Oregon, which makes us look a bit stronger. I want anyone who isn't leading their conference, but who has 1 or 2 losses, to lose. To try to get there, here are a few game outcomes USC fans should root for, in order of my preference:
- USC over Arizona State
- San Diego State over TCU
- Northwestern over Iowa
- Ohio State over Penn State
- Louisiana Tech over Boise State
- Wake Forest over Georgia Tech
- U. Conn over Cincinnati
- Virginia over Miami
- Tulsa over Houston
- New Mexico over Utah
- Syracuse over Pitt
- Louisville over West Virginia
- Notre Dame over Navy
- Iowa State over Oklahoma State
- San Jose State over Nevada
- Vanderbilt over Florida
- UCF over Texas
- LSU over Alabama
There are a lot of unlikely outcomes in that list.
I'm not sure how to root in the Pac-10. I'll assume that USC wins out, making it unimportant to root against any team competing for 2nd place in the conference - USC has beaten Cal and Oregon State, and have yet to play Stanford and Arizona. That means I want ranked Pac-10 teams to keep winning (although an Oregon upset would still be great), and then I want teams with 4 or 5 wins to become bowl-eligible. That means I'd probably like to see
- USC over Arizona State
- Stanford over Oregon* (but only if the Ducks plan to lose another game, too...)
- Arizona over Washington State
- Cal over Oregon State (OSU needs a 6th win, but can get it against the Cougars)
- Washington over UCLA
Let the games begin, starting with Boise State against Louisiana Tech, which, oddly enough, is in a conference called the Mountain West - which is almost as strange as the Atlanta Braves spending all those years in the NL West and only slightly stranger than it would be to see Texas in the Pac-10.
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