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My College Football Picks, 2011 Week 5

I am now 14-5-1 on the season with my money picks. Overall, in the top 25, I am 39-38-2 on the season.. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25 against the spread, as shown in bold. The five bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine:

Saturday, Oct. 1:
Northwestern @ #24 Illinois -10
* Minnesota @ #19 Michigan -20
#14 Texas A&M @ #18 Arkansas +2½
Kentucky @ #1 LSU -30½
Nevada @ #4 Boise St. -27½
#15 Baylor @ Kansas St. +3½
#21 Georgia Tech @ North Carolina St. +10
Bowling Green @ #22 West Virginia -18
* Auburn @ #10 South Carolina -10½
* SMU @ #20 TCU -12½
#13 Clemson @ #11 VA Tech -7
* Ball St @ #2 Oklahoma -40
#17 Texas @ Iowa St. +9
#8 Nebraska @ #7 Wisconsin -10
#3 Alabama @ #12 Florida +4
Oregon St. @ #25 Arizona St. -18
* UCLA @ #6 Stanford -21½

In unranked Pac-12 and USC opponent play, I like:
Arizona @ USC -12½
Washington State @ Colorado -3
Washington @ Utah -10
Rutgers @ Syracuse -1½
Notre Dame @ Purdue +12

Most of the Top 25 are at home again this weekend. There are again going to be at least four ranked teams losing this week. The Virginia Tech/Clemson game is for the College Football Belt, which Clemson took from Auburn a few weeks back. Ten teams I'm rooting for this weekend: USC, Stanford and Purdue. Michigan State, South Carolina, Texas, Baylor, Nevada, Kentucky, Virginia Tech.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

2011's Perfection: And Then There Were 22

Here are the unbeaten teams through four weeks of college football:

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Boise State
5. Stanford
6. Wisconsin
7. Oklahoma State
8. Nebraska
9. South Carolina
10. Virginia Tech
11. Florida
12. Baylor
13. South Florida
14. Texas 
15. Michigan
16. Houston
17. Georgia Tech
18. Clemson
19. Illinois
20. Iowa State
21. Texas Tech
22. Kansas State

By conference, the unbeaten teams shake out like this: ACC 3, Big East 1, Big Ten 4, Big XII 7, Conference USA 1, MWC 1, Pac-12 1, SEC 4. All of the unbeaten teams are in the top 25 except for Iowa State, Houston, Texas Tech and Kansas State.

My 2011 College Football Top 25, Week 4

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot would look like after week 4, with last week's picks in brackets:

1. LSU [1]
2. Oklahoma [2]
3. Alabama [3]
4. Stanford [4]
5. Boise State [5]
6. Wisconsin [6]
7. Oklahoma State [10]
8. South Carolina [7]
9. Oregon [9]
10. Virginia Tech [11]
11. Nebraska [12]
12. Florida [14]
13. Texas [17]
14. Michigan [18]
15. Texas A&M [8]
16. Clemson [22]
17. South Florida [20]
18. Baylor [21]
19. Arkansas [13]
20. Georgia Tech [23]
21. TCU [24]
22. West Virginia [15]
23. Illinois [NR]
24. Arizona State [NR]
25. Utah [25]

Dropped out: Florida State [16], USC [19]

I almost went with: Houston, Auburn

I knew it!   Florida State down, LSU up

I blew it!  USC

I think the AP is overrating these: Florida State, Baylor, Clemson

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Notre Dame, Mississippi State

My 2011 Bottom 10 After Week 4

Here is my Bottom "Ten" after four weeks of play. There are only seven winless teams left, thanks to sissy play against the FCS that has given sixteen teams their only wins. At the very Bottom, we have three winless teams who haven't even beaten their FCS foes, followed by a pair of teams that are 1-3, with at least one loss against the FCS. New Mexico, coming off back-to-back 1-11 seasons, fired its head coach Mike Locksley after Saturday's home overtime loss to Sam Houston State and Saturday morning's arrest of a 19-year-old self-identified New Mexico recruit who was allegedly driving drunk in a car registered to coach Locksley. That's enough for me to bump them above Western Kentucky, who suffered a blowout loss to Indiana State last week. Minnesota returns to the list after suffering an upset at home to North Dakota State, while UNLV also returns after getting beat by 25 at home against Southern Utah. Here's how I see 'em this week:

1. New Mexico (0-4)* [5] Locksley era ends with 2-26 record. Next loss: N.M. State.
2. W. Kentucky (0-3)* [1] Idle. Best week of the season. Next loss: Arkansas State
3. Oregon State (0-3)* [2] Lost to bRuins. Next loss: @ ASU
4. Minnesota (1-3)* [NR] Lost to North Dakota State. Next loss: @ Michigan
5. UNLV (1-3) [NR] Lost badly to Southern Utah. Next loss: @ Nevada
6. UAB (0-3) [NR] 2 losses were to teams with losing records. Next loss: @ Troy
7. Middle Tennessee (0-3) [NR] Defense giving up 38 ppg. Next loss: Memphis
8. Miami (OH) (0-3) [NR] Losses include Minnesota. Next loss: Cincinnati
9. Florida Atlantic (0-3) [7] At least their losses were to decent teams. Next loss: @ La. Lafayette
10. Fifteen teams tied with one win against the FCS and none against the FBS:

• Akron (1-3) [4] Beat VMI. Next loss: @ E. Michigan
• Kent State (1-3) [8] Beat S. Alabama. Scoring 6.66 ppg against FBS. Next loss: @ Ohio
• Boston College (1-3) [9] Beat U.Mass. Next loss: Wake Forest
• Memphis (1-3) [10] Beat Autin Peay. Next loss: @ Middle Tennessee
• Buffalo (1-2) [NR] Beat Stony Brook. Next loss: @ Tennessee
• Toledo (1-3) [NR] Beat New Hampshire. Next loss: @ Temple
• Indiana (1-3) [NR] Beat South Carolina State. Next loss: Penn State
• Central Michigan (1-3) [NR] Beat South Carolina State. Next loss: N. Illinois
• Arizona (1-3) [NR] Beat Northern Arizona. Next loss: @ USC
• Ole Miss (1-3) [NR] Beat Southern Illinois. Next loss:@ Fresno State
• N. Illinois (1-3) [NR] Beat Cal Poly. Next loss: @ C. Michigan
• Louisiana Monroe (1-3) [NR] Beat Grambling. Next loss: Arkansas State
• Utah State (1-3) [NR] Beat Weber St. Next loss: @ BYU
• Louisiana Tech (1-3) [NR] Beat Central Arkansas. Next loss: Hawaii
• Idaho (1-3) [NR] Beat North Dakota Next loss: @ Virginia

Dropped up and out: #6 North Texas (1-3) beat Indiana; #3 San Jose State (1-3) [3] beat New Mexico State to end 13 game losing streak.

Not far ahead: Eastern Michigan (2-2), both wins against FCS.

This week's crummy Game of the Weak: Memphis @ Middle Tennessee

This week's Blowout of the Weak: Minnesota @ Michigan

College Picks 2011: Week 4 Results

I won four of my five money* picks this week, which means I've been in positive territory every week so far this year. I am now 14-5-1 on the season with my money picks. That's better than most handicappers. I wonder how long I can keep this up. Overall, I went just 9-9-1 in the top 25, bringing me to 39-38-2 on the season. Here's how I did:

W * San Diego St. @ #22 Michigan -10½
P North Carolina @ #25 Georgia Tech -7
L Portland St. @ #20 TCU -45
L #13 Virginia Tech @ Marshall +20½
L #11 Florida St. @ #21 Clemson -2½
W South Dakota @ #6 Wisconsin -45½
W Western Michigan @ #24 Illinois -13½
L * #14 Arkansas @ #3 Alabama -11 
W #7 Oklahoma St. @ #8 Texas A&M -4½
L UTEP @ #18 South Florida -29½
L #15 Florida @ Kentucky +19½
W * Vanderbilt @ #12 South Carolina -15½
W Rice @ #17 Baylor -20½
W * #9 Nebraska @ Wyoming +21
W #2 LSU @ #16 West Virginia +5½
L Missouri @ #1 Oklahoma -19½
L Tulsa @ #4 Boise St. -28
W * #10 Oregon @ Arizona +15½
L #23 USC @ Arizona St. -2½

In unranked Pac-12 and USC opponent play, I was 3-3:
W Colorado @ Ohio St. -16½
L UCLA @ Oregon St. -5
L California @ Washington -1
W Toledo @ Syracuse -2½
L North Dakota State @ Minnesota -10
W Notre Dame @ Pitt +7

Despite my wagering success, it was the opposite of a Perfect Day for me. USC lost. UCLA and Notre Dame both won. Among teams I rooted for hard, only Oklahoma State won. After 12 straight road games where I've gone out of Southern California to see the Trojans win, I finally suffered the indignity of walking off another campus wearing the colors of the losing team. And I had to taste a habooby dust storm and sweat a 90° night game while listening to foul-mouthed ASU fans make for some awkward moments with my little girls. Aside from that, it was a fun weekend.

My College Football Picks, 2011 Week 4

I am now 10-4-1 on the year with my money picks. Overall, in the top 25, I'm 30-29-1 on the season, so even though nothing's on the line, I really want to have a winning record this week. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25 against the spread, as shown in bold. The bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine:

Saturday, Sep. 24:
* San Diego St. @ #22 Michigan -10½
North Carolina @ #25 Georgia Tech -7
Portland St. @ #20 TCU -45
#13 Virginia Tech @ Marshall +20½
#11 Florida St. @ #21 Clemson -2½
South Dakota @ #6 Wisconsin -45½
Western Michigan @ #24 Illinois -13½
* #14 Arkansas @ #3 Alabama -11 
#7 Oklahoma St. @ #8 Texas A&M -4½
UTEP @ #18 South Florida -29½
#15 Florida @ Kentucky +19½
* Vanderbilt @ #12 South Carolina -15½
Rice @ #17 Baylor -20½
* #9 Nebraska @ Wyoming +21
#2 LSU @ #16 West Virginia +5½
Missouri @ #1 Oklahoma -19½
Tulsa @ #4 Boise St. -28
* #10 Oregon @ Arizona +15½
#23 USC @ Arizona St. -2½

In unranked Pac-12 and USC opponent play, I like:
Colorado @ Ohio St. -16½
UCLA @ Oregon St. -5
California @ Washington -1
Toledo @ Syracuse -2½
North Dakota State @ Minnesota -10
Notre Dame @ Pitt +7

Most of the Top 25 are at home this weekend. There are going to be at least four ranked teams losing this week. FSU/Clemson, Arkansas/Alabama, Oklahoma State/Texas A&M and LSU/West Virginia all look like good games. The Florida State/Clemson game is for the College Football Belt, which Clemson took from Auburn last weekend. I find it amusing that UCLA is a five point underdog on the field where Sacramento State recently won. I can't believe Notre Dame is such a favorite. And I think this is the first time in about a decade that USC was an underdog to a team in what is now the Pac-12 South. Can you remember USC being a dog to anyone but Oregon or Stanford since 2001 or 2002?

Ten teams I'm rooting for this weekend: USC, Pitt and Oregon State. Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Rice, Kentucky, Oklahoma State and UTEP. Maybe Florida State and maybe LSU, too. But I don't like them.

Weather forecast for USC's game at Arizona State: 93° at 7:15 p.m. kickoff time, after coming down from a daytime high of 107°.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

It's the End of the World as we Know It and I Feel Sad

R.E.M.is breaking up after three decades of making great music. This is probably the best band I never saw play live. I've been a huge fan of the band since I first heard So. Central Rain. When I was studying for the bar in my bar prep course at Chapman College, Losing My Religion was on the radio almost every drive home. One of my favorite things to do is sing It's the End of the World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine) at karaoke. It's the hardest song on any playlist, and the difficulty is compounded by the fact that every karaoke place has the wrong lyrics on their screens. To sing it right, you have to close your eyes and sing it from memory, or else you start singing crap like "virgin snakes and airplanes." Virgin snakes? WTF is a virgin snake. R.E.M. wouldn't write something that stupid. I think they must have outsourced their lyric gathering to India and assigned it to someone who didn't know English yet.

Anyhow, I feel sad.

 

Maybe they'll do a reunion show at Coachella in a few years.

It's the End of the World as we Know It and I Feel Fine

Here are some reasons to be concerned:

1. Fact 1: The European debt crisis has taken a turn for the worse.
2. Fact 2: Problems with banks have re-emerged.
3. Fact 3: Money markets are seizing up
4. Fact 4: The broader economic environment is deteriorating.

For more detail, click the article at the link I put in the first line.

Not everyone is on a panic,however. Warren Buffet, for one, seems unconcerned.

Oh, to sleep at night knowing that if I screwed up on a $5 billion deal tomorrow, my life wouldn't materially change....

2011's Perfection: And Then There Were 33

Here are the unbeaten teams through three weeks of college football:

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Boise State
5. Stanford
6. Wisconsin
7. Oklahoma State
8. Texas A&M
9. Nebraska
10. South Carolina
11. Virginia Tech
12. Arkansas
13. Florida
14. West Virginia
15. Baylor
16. South Florida
17. Texas 
18. Michigan
19. USC
20. Houston
21. Georgia Tech
22. Clemson
23. North Carolina
24. Illinois
25. Iowa State
26. Texas Tech
27. Kansas State
28. Ohio
29. Wyoming
30. San Diego State
31. Cal
32. Vanderbilt
33. FIU

By conference, the unbeaten teams shake out like this: ACC 4, Big East 2, Big Ten 4, Big XII 8, Conference USA 1, MAC 1,  MWC 3, Pac 12 3, SEC 6, Sun Belt 1. Thanks to the FCS, there are a lot more undefeated teams than winless teams in the FBS. The group of winless teams in the FBS is down to 14.

Some Shots from USC's win over Syracuse

My 2011 College Football Top 25, Week 3

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot would look like after week 3, with last week's picks in brackets:

1. LSU [1]
2. Oklahoma [3]
3. Alabama [2]
4. Stanford [4]
5. Boise State [5]
6. Wisconsin [6]
7. South Carolina [7]
8. Texas A&M [8]
9. Oregon [9]
10. Oklahoma State [11]
11. Virginia Tech [12]
12. Nebraska [13]
13. Arkansas [15]
14. Florida [16]
15. West Virginia [17]
16. Florida State [10]
17. Texas [19]
18. Michigan [20]
19. USC [22]
20. South Florida [24]
21. Baylor [25]
22. Clemson [NR]
23. Georgia Tech [NR]
24. TCU [NR]
25. Utah [NR]

Dropped out: Auburn [23], Ohio State [21], Arizona State [18], Michigan State [14]

I almost went with: Houston, Miami

I knew it!   Florida State, Ohio State

I blew it!   Michigan State, Arizona State

I think the AP is overrating these: Florida State, TCU

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Notre Dame, Mississippi State

College Picks 2011: Week 3 Results

I won three of my five* picks this week, which means I've been in positive territory for three straight weeks. I am now 10-4-1 on the year with my money picks. Overall, I went 13-10 in the top 25, bringing me to 30-29-1 on the season. Here's how I did:

W #3 LSU @ #25 Mississippi State +4½
W #4 Boise State @ Toledo +20½
W *#21 Auburn @ Clemson -3
W #18 West Virginia @ Maryland -1½
L Lousiana Monroe @ #23 TCU -28½
W Washington @ #11 Nebraska -17
L Tennessee @ #16 Florida -9
W #7 Wisconsin @ N. Illinois +17½
L * #15 Michigan St. @ Notre Dame -4½
W #23 Texas @ UCLA +4
W Missouri St. @ #12 Oregon -48½
L Arkansas St. @ #13 Virginia Tech -24
L Navy @ #10 South Carolina -17
W Stephen F. Austin @ #19 Baylor -21½
L #22 Arizona St. @ Illinois -1
L Florida A&M @ #20 South Florida -44½
W Idaho @ #9 Texas A&M -35½
L * North Texas @ #2 Alabama -45½
L Troy @ #14 Arkansas -23
W * #17 Ohio State @ Miami (FL) -3
L #1 Oklahoma @ #5 Florida St. +3½
W #8 Oklahoma St. @ Tulsa +14
W * #6 Stanford @ Arizona +10½

I also picked:
W Colorado State @ Colorado -7½
W Presbyterian @ Cal -42½
L Washington State @ San Diego State -5
W Syracuse @ USC -16½
W Utah @ BYU -4
L Miami (Ohio) @ Minnesota -4½

USC's wins over Minnesota and Utah look a little better today. Michigan State kept me from enjoying a Perfect Day. Texas, Clemson and Miami brought me some enjoyable wins. Florida State and Maryland let me down. But all that really matters is that USC got its first strong win of the season.

My 2011 Bottom 10 After Week 3

Here is my Bottom Ten after three weeks of play. We have a new Bottom Ten leader. Idle Oregon State slips to #2 by virtue of a Western Kentucky home blowout loss to Indiana State of the Missouri Valley Conference. As a group, this lot plays 4 FCS opponents next week, and two have already fallen to FCS teams. Pathetic. Here's how I see 'em this week:

1. W. Kentucky (0-3) [5] Can't stay within 3 TDs of an FCS team? Next loss: Arkansas State
2. Oregon State (0-2) [1] Idle. Lost to Sac. St. Scoreless against FBS. Next loss: UCLA
3. San Jose State (0-3) [2] Came close against Nevada. Next loss: New Mexico State
4. Akron (0-3) [3] Outscored 142-17 on the season. Next loss: VMI
5. New Mexico (0-3) [4] Still under .100 for Coach Locksley. Next loss: Sam Houston State
6. North Texas (0-3) [6] Defense yet to hold opponents under 40. Next loss: Indiana
7. Florida Atlantic (0-2) [9] Idle. Outscored 85-3 in two games. Next loss: @ Auburn
8. Kent State (0-3) [NR] Scoring 6.66 points per game. Next loss: South Alabama
9. Boston College (0-3) [NR] Lost at home to Duke. Next loss: U. Mass
10. Memphis (1-2) [7] Still winless against the FBS. Next loss: Southern Methodist

Dropped up and out: #8 UNLV (1-2) beat Hawaii; #10 Minnesota (1-2) beat Miami (Ohio)

Not far ahead: Eastern Michigan (2-1 [both wins against FCS], Buffalo (1-2) [win against FCS], Fresno State (1-2) [narrow win against FCS]

This week's crummy Game of the Weak: Sam Houston State @ New Mexico

This week's Blowouts of the Weak: Florida Atlantic @ Auburn

Conferences with one or more of the 14 winless teams: ACC (1), Conference USA (2), Mid-American (3), MWC (1), Pac-12 (1), Sun Belt (5) and WAC (1).

Your New College Football Champions - the Clemson Tigers

Using the belt title system, we have yet another championship belt winner in college football - the Clemson Tigers, who defeated defending champion Auburn, snapping their 17 game winning streak with a 38-24 win at home. Clemson is now 3-0 for the first time since 2007. Clemson trailed early 14-0, but outscore Auburn 38-10 the rest of the way. They look like happy champions, don't they?

Since I've been following this method of crowning my own national champion, I've only posted when there was a new champion. Here is the history of my belt, awarded in accordance with the belt method:

• Texas took it from undisputed champion USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl.
• On September 9, 2006, #1 Ohio State gained the belt by defeating the #2 Texas Longhorns 24-7.
• On January 8, 2007, #2 Florida won the belt and the BCS by defeating the #1 Buckeyes 41-14.
• On September 29, 2007, the Auburn Tigers took the belt with a 20-17 win at #4 Florida.
• On October 20, 2007, #5 LSU obtained the belt from #18 Auburn with a 30-24 victory.
• On November 23, 2007, Arkansas took the title from #1 LSU with a 50-48 victory.
• On January 1, 2008, #7 Missouri took the belt away with a 38-7 win in the Cotton Bowl.
• On October 11, 2008, #3 Missouri lost the title to #17 Oklahoma State 28-23.
• On October 25, 2008, #1 Texas won back the belt by defeating #6 Oklahoma State 28-24.
• On November 1, 2008, #7 Texas Tech won the belt by defeating #1 Texas 39-33.
• On November 22, 2008, #5 Oklahoma took the belt by defeating #2 Texas Tech 65-21.
• On January 8, 2009, #2 Florida took the belt, and the BCS title, by beating the #1 Sooners 24-14.
• On December 5, 2009, Alabama won the belt (and later the BCS) by beating the Gators 32-13.
• On October 9, 2010, #19 South Carolina took the belt from #1 BCS champ Alabama 35-21.
• On October 16, 2010, Kentucky took the belt by defeating #10 South Carolina 31-28.
• On October 23, 2010, Georgia took the belt by winning at Kentucky, 44-31.
• On October 30, 2010, Florida took the belt by beating Georgia 34-31 in OT.
• On November 13, 2010,#23 South Carolina reclaimed the belt from #22 Florida 36-14.
• On December 4, 2010, #1 Auburn took the belt (and later the BCS) from #19 usc 56-17 in the SEC title game.
• On September 17, 2011, Clemson took it from #21 Auburn 38-24.

Auburn defended the belt against #2 Oregon, Utah State and #16 Mississippi State. The belt is likely to bounce around the ACC for a while now. Clemson's first defense of their belt will come next week against Florida State. If they get past the Seminoles, they defend again at Virginia Tech.

2011's Perfection: And Then There Were 54

Here are the unbeaten teams through two weeks of college football:

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Boise State
5. Florida State
6. Stanford
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklahoma State
9. Texas A&M
10. Nebraska
11. South Carolina
12. Virginia Tech
13. Arkansas
14. Michigan State
15. Florida
16. Ohio State
17. West Virginia
18. Baylor
19. South Florida
20. Auburn
21. Arizona State
22. Texas 
23. Michigan
24. USC
25. Maryland
26. Houston
27. UCF
28. Northwestern
29. Tennessee
30. Washington
31. Georgia Tech
32. Clemson
33. Virginia
34. North Carolina
35. Pitt
36. Syracuse
37. Illinois
38. Kansas
39. Iowa State
40. Texas Tech
41. Kansas State
42. Temple
43. Bowling Green
44. Ohio
45. Eastern Michigan
46. Colorado State
47. Wyoming
48. San Diego State
49. Washington State
50. Cal
51. Vanderbilt
52. Kentucky
53. FIU
54. Navy

So if your team is unbeaten and unranked, have patience. There are 29 other schools in your boat.

My College Football Picks, 2011 Week 3

I finished way above .500 last week, going 4-0-1 in my money picks That puts me at 7-2-1 on the year. At $100 a wager, I'm up $430. Even in the games where I have no strong opinion one way or the other, I'm near .500, at 17-19-1. Not bad. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25 against the spread, as shown in bold. The bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine:

Thursday, Sep 15:
#3 LSU @ #25 Mississippi State +4½

Friday, Sep 16:
#4 Boise State @ Toledo +20½

Saturday, Sep 17:
*#21 Auburn @ Clemson -3
#18 West Virginia @ Maryland -1½
Lousiana Monroe @ #23 TCU -28½0
Washington @ #11 Nebraska -17
Tennessee @ #16 Florida -9
#7 Wisconsin @ N. Illinois +17½
* #15 Michigan St. @ Notre Dame -4½
#23 Texas @ UCLA +4
Missouri St. @ #12 Oregon -48½
Arkansas St. @ #13 Virginia Tech -24
Navy @ #10 South Carolina -17
Stephen F. Austin @ #19 Baylor -21½
#22 Arizona St. @ Illinois -1
Florida A&M @ #20 South Florida -44½
Idaho @ #9 Texas A&M -35½
* North Texas @ #2 Alabama -45½
Troy @ #14 Arkansas -23
* #17 Ohio State @ Miami (FL) -3
#1 Oklahoma @ #5 Florida St. +3½
#8 Oklahoma St. @ Tulsa +14
* #6 Stanford @ Arizona +10½

In unranked Pac-12 play, I like:
Colorado State @ Colorado -7½
Presbyterian @ Cal -42½
Washington State @ San Diego State -5
Syracuse @ USC -16½
Utah @ BYU -4

I'm also watching:
Miami (Ohio) @ Minnesota -4½

Ten teams I'm rooting for this weekend: USC, Michigan State and (gulp) Texas. Well, maybe Texas. Also, I wouldn't mind seeing wins for Clemson, Maryland, Washington, Tennessee, Florida State, Florida A&M and the U (probably the only time I'll root for Miami all year).

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

College Picks 2011: Week 2 Results

As usual, my overall picks were mediocre at 9-8-1, but I picked five real money games, and in those, I hit 4 and pushed on the other. 4-0-1 is a very good week. Should have bet the 401k. So on the year, I'm 7-2-1 in my money picks, but only  So I'm in the black already. I also did ok on the action outside the Top 25, where I was 3-1-1. Here's how I did:

Saturday, Sep 10:
W * Florida Atlantic @ #17 Michigan St. -32
L Toledo @ #15 Ohio St. -18½
W * Oregon St. @ #8 Wisconsin -21½
W #16 Mississippi St. @ Auburn +6 (straight up)
W Norfolk St. @ #19 West Virginia -47
W * #6 Stanford @ Duke +21½
L #3 Alabama @ #23 Penn St. +10½
L #25 TCU @ Air Force +1
W #11 Virginia Tech @ East Carolina +17½
W Nevada @ #13 Oregon -27½
P * #12 South Carolina @ Georgia +3
L Charleston Southern @ #5 Florida St. -55½
W UAB @ #18 Florida -23½
L Ball St. @ #22 South Florida -20
L BYU @ #24 Texas -7
L Fresno St. @ #10 Nebraska -28
W * New Mexico @ #14 Arkansas -36½
L Northwestern St. @ #2 LSU -49½

In unranked Pac-12 play and USC opponent play, I picked:
W Hawaii @ Washington -6
W UNLV @ Washington State -14
P Utah @ USC -9
W Notre Dame @ Michigan +3½
L San Jose State @ UCLA -21

Shockingly, we came close to a Perfect Day, with USC's defensive stand, Michigan's rally and UCLA keeping San Jose State close late. Teams I rooted for did well. USC and Michigan won big games. San Jose State and Toledo put up good fights, as did Norfolk State. Stanford and Alabama dominated. Air Force, Ball State and BYU disappointed.

My 2011 Bottom 10 After Week 2

Here is my Bottom Ten after two weeks of play. Oregon State keeps the Bottom spot by virtue of an ass-whooping at the hands of Wisconsin, proving that the Beavers can play lousy against inferior and superior opponents alike. Eastern Michigan defeated another FCS foe. . Here's how I see 'em this week:

1. Oregon State (0-2) [1] Sacramento State and then a 0-35 loss to the cheese. Next loss: UCLA
2. San Jose State (0-2) [2] Like the Pac-12's redheaded stepchild. Next loss: Nevada
3. Akron (0-2) [3] Outscored 83-3 on the season. Next loss: @ Cincinnati
4. New Mexico (0-2) [4] Gave up 52. Mike Locksley's winning % is under .100  Next loss: Texas Tech
5. W. Kentucky (0-2) [6] Outscore 57-17 so far. Next loss: Indiana State
6. North Texas (0-2) [7] Defense yet to hold opponents under 40. Next loss: @ #2 Alabama
7. Memphis (0-2) [9] Outscored 106-17. Even Arkansas St. manhandled them. Next loss: Austin Peay
8. UNLV (0-2) [10] Still looking to keep an offense under 50. Next loss: Hawaii
9. Florida Atlantic (0-2) [NR] Outscore 85-3 in two games. Next loss: @ Auburn
10. Minnesota (0-2) [NR] Lost at home to New Mexico State. Next loss: Miami (Ohio)

Dropped up and out: New Mexico State (1-1), beat Minnesota; Buffalo (1-1) Beat Stony Brook.

Not far ahead: Eastern Michigan (2-0 [both against FCS], Buffalo (1-1) [win against FCS], Colorado (0-2), Duke (0-2),

This week's crummy Game of the Weak: Memphis v Austin Peay

This week's Blowouts of the Weak: North Texas @ Alabama

Conferences with one or more of the 24 winless teams: ACC (3), Big Ten (2), Conference USA (3), Mid-American (3), MWC (2), Pac-12 (2), SEC (1), Sun Belt (5), WAC (3) and Independents (2).

My 2011 College Football Top 25, Week 2

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot would look like after week 2, with last week's picks in brackets:

1. LSU [1]
2. Alabama [2]
3. Oklahoma [3]
4. Stanford [4]
5. Boise State [5]
6. Wisconsin [6]
7. South Carolina [7]
8. Texas A&M [8]
9. Oregon [9]
10. Florida State [10]
11. Oklahoma State [11]
12. Virginia Tech [12]
13. Nebraska [13]
14. Michigan State [14]
15. Arkansas [15]
16. Florida [16]
17. West Virginia [17]
18. Arizona State [21]
19. Texas [18]
20. Michigan [NR]
21. Ohio State [20]
22. USC [22]
23. Auburn [NR]
24. South Florida [NR]
25. Baylor [NR]

Dropped out: Missouri [19], Georgia [23], Mississippi State [24], Penn State [25],

I almost went with: Penn State still

I knew it! Michigan+, Arizona State+, Mississippi State-

I blew it! (Nothing this week)

I think the AP is overrating these: Florida State, Ohio State, South Florida, Baylor, TCU

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Hawaii, Arizona, Northern Illinois

The Pac-12 Question of the Day

My College Football Picks, 2011 Week 2

I finished above .500 last week, going 3-2 in my money picks (3-1 if you exclude my heart-not-head pick of USC), but overall, including the games where I really didn't have a strong opinion one way or the other, I was only 8-11. We're off to a good week so far, with Arizona State knocking off Missouri. But since that's in the past, I can't claim a win there. Here are my picks for today in the top 25 against the spread, as shown in bold. The bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine:

Saturday, Sep 10:
* Florida Atlantic @ #17 Michigan St. -32
Toledo @ #15 Ohio St. -18½
* Oregon St. @ #8 Wisconsin -21½
#16 Mississippi St. @ Auburn +6
Norfolk St. @ #19 West Virginia -47
* #6 Stanford @ Duke +21½
#3 Alabama @ #23 Penn St. +10½
#25 TCU @ Air Force +1
#11 Virginia Tech @ East Carolina +17½
Nevada @ #13 Oregon -27½
* #12 South Carolina @ Georgia +3
Charleston Southern @ #5 Florida St. -55½
UAB @ #18 Florida -23½
Ball St. @ #22 South Florida -20
BYU @ #24 Texas -7
Fresno St. @ #10 Nebraska -28
* New Mexico @ #14 Arkansas -36½
Northwestern St. @ #2 LSU -49½

In unranked Pac-12 play, I like:
Hawaii @ Washington -6
UNLV @ Washington State -14
Utah @ USC -9
Notre Dame @ Michigan +3½
San Jose State @ UCLA -21

Already played and done:
Arizona State 14 @ #9 Oklahoma St. 37
#21 Missouri 30 @ Arizona St. 37 (OT) (yeah!)

Like last week, there are too many wildly high spreads that could be decided by the third string. I'm putting no real money on those. There won't be a Perfect Day today, as UCLA is hosting what might actually be the worst team in the FBS.

Ten teams I'm rooting for today:

USC, Michigan, San Jose State, Toledo, Stanford, Norfolk State, Alabama, Air Force, Ball State and BYU.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

My 2011 Bottom 10 for Week 2

Here is my Bottom Ten after one week of play. So far, we have just one preseason Bottom Ten team with a win - Eastern Michigan defeated FCS foe Howard on Sunday after a day-long weather delay. Oregon State jumped from the unranked masses into the Bottom spot with a disastrous home loss to Sacramento State, which is easily the most humiliating defeat in Pac-12 history, and will be for a long time. Here's how I see 'em this week:

1. Oregon State (0-1) [NR] Lost at home to Sacramento State. Next loss:@ Wisconsin
2. San Jose State (0-1) [1] Viciously whipped by Stanford. Next loss: @ UCLA
3. Akron (0-1) [2] Lost 21 of last 25 games. Made Ohio State look too good. Next loss:Temple
4. New Mexico (0-1) [3] Head Coach Mike Locksley falls to 2-23 for the Lobos. Next loss: @ Arkansas
5. New Mexico State (0-1) [4] Gave up 452 yards to Ohio. Next loss:@ Minnesota
6. W. Kentucky (0-1) [5] Holding UK to 14 points in 14-3 loss was a moral victory. Next loss: Navy
7. North Texas (0-1) [6] Gave up 28 first quarter points to FIU. Next loss: Houston
8. Buffalo (0-1) [7] Playing an FCS team. Next loss: Stony Brook
9. Memphis (0-1) [8] Best chance for a win comes this week. Next loss: Arkansas State
10. UNLV (0-1) [10] Pummeled by Wisconsin. Next loss: @ Washington St.

Dropped up and out: Eastern Michigan (1-0), after beating some dude named Howard.

Not far ahead: Louisiana Lafayette (0-1), Duke (0-1), Arkansas State (0-1)

This week's crummy Game of the Weak: Memphis @ Louisiana Lafayette

This week's Blowouts of the Weak: Oregon State @ Wisconsin, New Mexico @ Arkansas

My 2011 College Football Top 25, Week 1

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot would look like after week 1, with last week's picks in brackets:

1. LSU [2]
2. Alabama [3]
3. Oklahoma [4]
4. Stanford [5]
5. Boise State [6]
6. Wisconsin [7]
7. South Carolina [8]
8. Texas A&M [9]
9. Oregon [1]
10. Florida State [10]
11. Oklahoma State [11]
12. Virginia Tech [12]
13. Nebraska [13]
14. Michigan State [14]
15. Arkansas [18]
16. Florida [21]
17. West Virginia [22]
18. Texas [23]
19. Missouri [19]
20. Ohio State [NR]
21. Arizona State [25]
22. USC [20]
23. Georgia [15]
24. Mississippi State [NR]
25. Penn State [NR]

Dropped out: Auburn [16], TCU [17], Notre Dame [24]

I almost went with: Michigan

I knew it! Notre Dame and TCU

I blew it! Oregon

I think the AP is overrating these: Florida State, Ohio State, Mississippi State, South Florida, Baylor, TCU

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Hawaii, Arizona, Northern Illinois

College Picks 2011: Week 1 Results

Although I only went 8-11 overall last week, I won 3 of 5 of my money picks. So I'm in the black already. Here's how I did:

Saturday September 3:
L * Utah St. @ #23 Auburn -23
W * Akron @ #18 Ohio St. -33½
L Miami (OH) @ #21 Missouri -21
W Kent St. @ #2 Alabama -38
L Appalachian St. @ #13 Virginia Tech -25½
L * Minnesota @ #25 USC -24
L LA Monroe @ #6 Florida St. -29
L Chattanooga @ #10 Nebraska -36½
W South Florida @ #16 Notre Dame -11 (yeah!)
W * San Jose St. @ #7 Stanford -30
L LA Lafayette @ #9 Oklahoma St.  -38
L East Carolina @ #12 South Carolina -20½
L Missouri St. @ #15 Arkansas -42½
W Florida Atlantic @ #22 Florida -35
L #3 Oregon @ #4 LSU +3½
W * Tulsa @ #1 Oklahoma -25
L #5 Boise St. @ #19 Georgia +3

Sunday, Sep 4:
W Marshall @ #24 West Virginia -23
W SMU vs #8 Texas A&M -15½

The teams I rooted for had a good week. USC won, South Florida won and Houston won, making it a Trojan fan's "Perfect Day". Oregon disappointed. Boise State, Cal, Stanford all did well. Florida Atlantic did not. Utah State and Miami (Ohio) fought valiantly in losses.

My Preseason Bottom 10 for 2011

Here is my preseason Bottom Ten for 2011, with last year's record in parantheses:

1. San Jose State (1-12) Winless against FBS in 2010. First loss: @ #7 Stanford
2. Akron (1-11) One win (Buffalo) offset by a loss to Gardner-Webb. First loss: @ #18 Ohio State
3. New Mexico (1-11) Only win was at home against Wyoming. First loss: Colorado State
4. New Mexico State (2-10) Only wins: San Jose and New Mexico.  First loss: Ohio
5. W. Kentucky (2-10) Only wins: La.-Lafayette, Arkansas State. First loss: Kentucky
6. North Texas (3-9) Need to replace QB and lines from three-win team. First loss: Florida Intl
7. Buffalo (2-10) Lost to Akron and E. Michigan. First loss: @ Pitt
8. Memphis (1-11) Only win - Middle Tennesee when its QB was suspended. First loss: #20 Miss. St.
9. Eastern Michigan (2-10) Only wins: Buffalo, Kent State. First loss: Howard
10. UNLV (2-10) Unimpressive wins over New Mexico and Wyoming. First loss: @ #11 Wisconsin

Not far ahead: Washington State (2-9), Vanderbilt (2-9), Ball State (4-8). Lousiana (3-9)

This week's crummy Game of the Weak: Howard @ Eastern Michigan

This week's Blowout of the Weak: San Jose State @ Stanford

My College Football Picks, 2011 Week 1

I finished above .500 st season. This year, because of USC's sanctions, I won't do as well, because I'm not that interested in the rest of the field unless they play USC at some point in the regular season. But here are my picks in the top 25 against the spread, as shown in bold. The bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat nine:

Saturday September 3:
* Utah St. @ #23 Auburn -23
* Akron @ #18 Ohio St. -33½
Miami (OH) @ #21 Missouri -21
Kent St. @ #2 Alabama -38
Appalachian St. @ #13 Virginia Tech -25½
* Minnesota @ #25 USC -24
LA Monroe @ #6 Florida St. -29
Chattanooga @ #10 Nebraska -36½
South Florida @ #16 Notre Dame -11
* San Jose St. @ #7 Stanford -30
LA Lafayette @ #9 Oklahoma St.  -38
East Carolina @ #12 South Carolina -20½
Missouri St. @ #15 Arkansas -42½
Florida Atlantic @ #22 Florida -35
#3 Oregon @ #4 LSU +3½
* Tulsa @ #1 Oklahoma -25
#5 Boise St. @ #19 Georgia +3

Sunday, Sep 4:
Marshall @ #24 West Virginia -23
SMU vs #8 Texas A&M -15½

Not ranked, but I'm watching:
UCLA @ Houston -3
Fresno State @ Cal -10
Eastern Washington @ Washington -18

Already played and done:
UNLV 17 @ #11 Wisconsin 51
#20 Mississippi St. 50 @ Memphis 14
Youngstown St. 6 @ #17 Michigan St. 28
#14 TCU 48 @ Baylor 50

Some thoughts: there are too many wildly high spreads that could be decided by the third string. I'm putting no real money on those. And when was the last time you saw two ranked SEC teams open at home as underdogs to non-conference visitors?

Ten games where I'm rooting hard: USC, South Florida, Houston, Oregon, Florida Atlantic, Boise State, Cal, Stanford, Utah State, Miami (Ohio).

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

My 2011 College Football Preseason Top 25

If I had an AP vote, here is what my week 1 ballot would look like:

1. Oregon
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma
5. Stanford
6. Boise State
7. Wisconsin
8. South Carolina
9. Texas A&M
10. Florida State
11. Oklahoma State
12. Virginia Tech
13. Nebraska
14. Michigan State
15. Georgia
16. Auburn
17. TCU
18. Arkansas
19. Missouri
20. USC
21. Florida
22. West Virginia
23. Texas
24. Notre Dame
25. Arizona State

I almost went with: Utah

I think the AP is overrating these: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Florida State, Ohio State, TCU, Mississippi State

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Miami