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    « Looking Back at Week 9 | Main | Will a Poorly Designed Rule Change Decide The National Title? »

    November 03, 2006

    Comments

    CT

    Ye of little faith!

    What we actually need to happen: Louisville to lose, Auburn to lose, Florida to lose, USC to win out

    What we might need to happen: Texas to lose, The Michigan - Ohio st. winner to WIN BIG, Tenn. to lose

    What we don't need to happen: Rutgers to lose

    Rutgers will never catch us or anyone else even if they win out (even with wins over W. Va and Louisville their schedule is too weak and they trail too much in the human polls). I say there's a good chance we don't need Texas to lose because consider the following...

    If the things I said MUST happen do - unless Cal, Notre Dame and Arkansas have gone into nose dives and finish the season with 3+ loses each - then we'll finish #2 in at least 5 of the 6 computers and with a .960 computer %. I have utter confidence that in the scenario laid out above the computers will rank us #2.

    I don't think it is unreasonable to say that Texas under that scenario couldn't expect to get to better than .880, maybe .890, for a computer % average. If we led .960 to .870 or .880 in the computer %, then there's a shot we could jump them in the BCS rankings.

    Last week Michigan had a huge lead over the #3 team West Virginia (about ~.050 in both polls). But in the chaos of the scenario above Texas could never hope to hold such a large lead. If they held a .035 poll % lead in both human polls over USC and USC had a .090 lead in the computer %, we'd jump'em.

    In the chaos of the scenario above .035 might be generous even. We might be able to even be behind Tennessee in one of the polls...

    2. Texas
    3. Tennessee
    4. USC

    ...and still do it, if Texas' computer ranking doesn't get above .870 or .880.

    So, the situation is still far fetched but I think there's only four real things we need to happen to give us a chance...and one of those things USC controls.

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