Lex Icon Lexargy

My College Football Picks, 2012 Week 5

This week, the schedule of games involving AP ranked teams is much better. Most of the Top 25 hits the road this week, and those who are home (except for the three top-5 SEC teams) mostly have good opponents (Baylor, Ohio State, Wisconsin) coming in. Only one lower division opponent (Towson at LSU), and we start the day with a pair of games with ranked opponents. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25, except for the FBS v FCS game, which doesn't have spreads at most houses. My choice against the spread is shown in bold. Seven *bets I really like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine.

Saturday, Sep 29:
#25 Baylor @ #9  West Virginia -11
* #14 Ohio St. @ #20 Michigan St. -2½
* #17 Clemson @ Boston College +7
Tennessee @ #5 Georgia -14
* #4 Florida St. @ South Florida +16
* #24 Boise St. @ New Mexico +25½
#6 South Carolina @ Kentucky +20½
Towson @ #3 LSU
#15 TCU @ SMU +15½
* #12 Texas @ Oklahoma St. +2½
* Wisconsin @ #22 Nebraska -11½
#19 Louisville @ Southern Miss +10½
Mississippi @ #1 Alabama -30
#18 Oregon St. @ Arizona -2½
* #2 Oregon @ Washington St. +31½

In unranked Pac-12 play, I like:
ASU @ Cal +1
UCLA @ Colorado +20

I'm already disappointed by Stanford's loss to Washington and how that will affect USC, but if I get some of these winners, I'll be happier: Ole Miss, South Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, SMU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Michigan State, Oregon State and Colorado.

My College Football Top 25, 2012 Week 4

If I had an AP vote, here is what my 2012 ballot would look after week four, with my week three picks in brackets:

1. Oregon [2]
2. Alabama [3]
3. LSU [1]
4. Florida State [6]
5. West Virginia [5]
6. Georgia [7]
7. South Carolina [8]
8. Stanford [10]
9. Kansas State [12]
10. Texas [9]
11. USC [11]
12. Ohio State [14]
13. Florida [16]
14. Notre Dame [17]
15. TCU [19]
16. Clemson [13]
17. Oklahoma [4]
18. Michigan State [18]
19. Boise St. [20]
20. Oregon St. [23]
21. Louisville [24]
22. Northwestern [25]
23. Nebraska [NR]
24. Baylor [NR]
25. Mississippi St. [NR]

Dropped out: Arizona [21],UCLA [22], Michigan [15]

I almost went with: Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA

I knew it! Clemson, UCLA

I blew it! Michigan

I think the AP is overrating: LSU, Alabama, Notre Dame, Rutgers

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to:  Louisiana Tech, Purdue

My College Football Picks, 2012 Week 4

This week, the schedule of games involving AP ranked teams is a little better. Only one lower division opponent, and later in the day, we get four pairings of ranked teams. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25, except for the FBS v FCS game, which doesn't have spreads at most houses. My choice against the spread is shown in bold. Seven *bets I really like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine.

Saturday, Sept 22:
UAB @ #16 Ohio St. -35½
Maryland @ #8 West Virginia -26
Virginia @ #17 TCU -18½
Kentucky @ #14 Florida -23
* E Michigan @ #21 Michigan St. -31
Oregon St. @ #19 UCLA -7½
Missouri @ #7 South Carolina -10½
Idaho St @ #25 Nebraska
* Fla Atlantic @ #1 Alabama -48½
* California @ #13 USC -15
South Alabama @ #23 Miss St. -34
* #2 LSU @ Auburn +19
#20 Louisville @ Fla Intl +14
* #18 Michigan @ #11 Notre Dame -6
Vanderbilt @ #5 Georgia -16
* #15 Kansas St. @ #6 Oklahoma -16½
* #10 Clemson @ #4 Florida St. -14½
#22 Arizona @ #3 Oregon -21½

In games involving other teams USC plays this year, I like:

Colorado @ Washington St. -20
Syracuse @ Minnesota +2½
Utah @ ASU -6½
Nevada @ Hawaii +7

This Saturday, the ten teams I am rooting for, in order, are: USC, Michigan, Oregon State, Auburn, Florida Atlantic, Kansas State, Clemson, Oregon, Kentucky, Missouri.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

My College Football Top 25, 2012 Week 3

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot would look after week three, with my week two  picks in brackets:

1. LSU [2]
2. Oregon [3]
3. Alabama [4]
4. Oklahoma [5]
5. West Virginia [9]
6. Florida State [7]
7. Georgia [6]
8. South Carolina [8]
9. Texas [11]
10. Stanford [16]
11. USC [1]
12. Kansas State [13]
13. Clemson [14]
14. Ohio State [15]
15. Michigan [17]
16. Florida [18]
17. Notre Dame [23]
18. Michigan State [10]
19. TCU [19]
20. Boise St. [21]
21. Arizona [22]
22. UCLA [24]
23. Oregon St. [25]
24. Louisville [NR]
25. Northwestern [NR]

Dropped out: Virginia Tech [12], Tennessee [20]

I almost went with: Nebraska, Baylor. Mississippi St.

I knew it! Louisiana Monroe

I blew it! USC

I think the AP is overrating: Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, UCLA

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Fresno St.

My College Football Picks, 2012 Week 3

This week, I the schedule of games involving AP ranked teams is not very good. Most top teams are still playing lower division or other weaker opponents. Only three games involve pairs of ranked teams: USC @ Stanford, Florida @ Tennessee and Notre Dame @ Michigan State. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25, except for the FBS v FCS games, that don't have spreads at most houses. My choice against the spread is shown in bold. Seven *bets I really like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine.

Saturday, Sept 15:
* California @ #12 Ohio St. -16½
Wake Forest @ #5 Florida St. -27½
* #13 Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh +10½
#16 TCU @ Kansas +20½
Furman @ #11 Clemson
Tennessee Tech @ #4 Oregon
UMass @ #17 Michigan -45
* #1 Alabama @ Arkansas +20
UNC @ #19 Louisville -3
James Madison @ #9 West Virginia
#18 Florida @ #23 Tennessee -3
North Texas @ #15 Kansas St. -27½
UAB @ #8 South Carolina -33
* #2 USC @ #21 Stanford +7½
Florida Atlantic @ #7 Georgia -41½
* #20 Notre Dame @ #10 Michigan St. -6
* Idaho @ #3 LSU -42½
* #14 Texas @ Mississippi +10½
#25 BYU @ Utah +3
S.C. St. @ #24 Arizona
Houston @ #22 UCLA -17

In other Pac-12 play, I like:

Washington St. @ UNLV +8½
Portland St. @ Washington
Arizona St. @ Missouri -3
Colorado @ Fresno St. -15½

USC's unranked season opponents both have gimmes: Stony Brook @ Syracuse and Lamar @ Hawaii. No picks to make there.

This Saturday, the ten teams I am rooting for, in order, are: USC, Michigan State, Houston, Arkansas, Cal, Wake Forest, UAB, Florida Atlantic, Utah & Arizona State.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

My College Football Top 25, 2012 Week 2

If I had an AP vote, here is what my ballot would look after week two, with my week one picks in brackets:

1. USC [1]
2. LSU [2]
3. Oregon [3]
4. Alabama [4]
5. Oklahoma [5]
6. Georgia [6]
7. Florida State [8]
8. South Carolina [9]
9. West Virginia [10]
10. Michigan State [11]
11. Texas [14]
12. Virginia Tech [15]
13. Kansas State [17]
14. Clemson [18]
15. Ohio State [19]
16. Stanford [20]
17. Michigan [21]
18. Florida [22]
19. TCU [24]
20. Tennessee [NR]
21. Boise St. [NR]
22. Arizona [NR]
23. Notre Dame [NR]
24. UCLA [NR]
25. Oregon St. [NR]

Dropped out: Arkansas [7], Wisconsin [12], Oklahoma State [13], Nebraska [16], Utah [23], Washington [25]

I almost went with: BYU

I knew it! ...

I blew it! Utah

I think the AP is overrating: Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Louisiana Monroe, Ohio

My College Football Picks, 2012 Week 2

Every week, I go through the schedule of ranked teams and check the odds. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25 (except for the FBS v FCS games) against the spread, as shown in bold. The five *bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine.

Saturday, Sept 1
* UCF @ #14 Ohio St. -18½
Miami (FL) @ #21 Kansas St. -7
East Carolina @ #9 South Carolina -21
Ball St. @ #12 Clemson -27½
Austin Peay @ #15 VA Tech
Air Force @ #19 Michigan -21½
#11 Michigan St. @ Central Michigan +20
* #2 USC @ Syracuse +26
* #24 Florida @ Texas A&M +1
Missouri St. @ #23 Louisville
Purdue @ #22 Notre Dame -14
Western Kentucky  @ #1 Alabama -38
* #13 Wisconsin @ Oregon St. +7
Savannah St  @ #6 Florida St.
* Fresno St. @ #4 Oregon -34½
Florida A&M @ #5 Oklahoma
Grambling St  @ #20 TCU
Washington @ #3 LSU -24
Louisiana Monroe @ #8 Arkansas -30
#16 Nebraska  @ UCLA +5
#7 Georgia @ Missouri +1½
New Mexico @ #17 Texas -39½
#18 Oklahoma St @ Arizona +10½
Duke @ #25 Stanford -15½

In unranked Pac-12 play, the games are crap, so I'm not even picking any.  This Saturday, the ten teams I am rooting for, in order, are: USC, Nebraska, Purdue, Washington, Western Kentucky,  Grambling, Stanford, Oregon, Texas A&M and Oregon State.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

My College Football Top 25, 2012 Week 1

If I had an AP vote, here is what my 2012 ballot would look after week one, with my preseason picks in brackets:

1. USC [1]
2. LSU [2]
3. Oregon [3]
4. Alabama [6]
5. Oklahoma [4]
6. Georgia [5]
7. Arkansas [10]
8. Florida State [8]
9. South Carolina [11]
10. West Virginia [13]
11. Michigan State [12]
12. Wisconsin [7]
13. Oklahoma State [19]
14. Texas [14]
15. Virginia Tech [16]
16. Nebraska [20]
17. Kansas State [17]
18. Clemson [18]
19. Ohio State [23]
20. Stanford [16]
21. Michigan [9]
22. Florida [21]
23. Utah [22]
24. TCU [24]
25. Washington [25]

Dropped out: None

I almost went with: Boise State, BYU

I knew it! Penn State

I blew it! Stanford

I think the AP is overrating: Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson

I can't believe anyone gave votes this week to: Ohio

My College Football Picks, 2012 Week 1

Every week, I go through the schedule of ranked teams and check the odds. Here are my picks for this weekend in the top 25 (except for the FBS v FCS games) against the spread, as shown in bold. The five *bets I like are marked by an asterisk. See if your picks can beat mine.

Thursday, Aug 30
#9 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt +6½

Friday, Aug 31
#24 Boise St. @ #13 Michigan St. -7
San Jose St. @ #21 Stanford -25

Saturday, Sept 1
Miami (Ohio) @ #18 Ohio State -24½
Marshall @ #11 West Virginia -26½
Buffalo @ #6 Georgia -38
Southern Miss @ #17 Nebraska -19½
Northern Iowa @ #12 Wisconsin
* Bowling Green  @ #23 Florida -28½
Murray St. @ #7 Florida St.
Savannah St. @ #19 Okla St.
#14 Clemson @ Auburn +2½
North Texas  @ #3 LSU -44
Hawaii  @ #1 USC -41
* #8 Michigan @ #2 Alabama -13½
* Wyoming @ #15 Texas -31½
* #4 Oklahoma @ UTEP +30½
* Arkansas St. @ #5 Oregon -37

Sunday, Sept 2
Kentucky @ #25 Louisville -13

Monday, Sept 3
Georgia Tech @ #16 Virginia Tech -7

In unranked Pac-12 play, I like:

UCLA @ Rice +16
Washington St. @ BYU -11½
Northern Colorado @ Utah
Northern Arizona @ Arizona St.
Nevada @ Cal -11½
Colorado St. @ Colorado -6½
Toledo @ Arizona -11
San Diego St. @ Washington -14½
Nicholls St. @ Oregon St. (cancelled)

Among USC's other 2012 opponents, I like:

Notre Dame v Navy +14½
Northwestern @ Syracuse -1

This Saturday, the ten teams I am rooting for, in order, are: USC, Navy, Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Clemson, Murray State, Syracuse, Washington, Colorado and North Texas.

I'm surprised at the line on USC/Hawaii. If USC does break out with a big early lead, I would expect them to start running the ball a lot in the second half, and I would expect to see a lot of second string players given a chance to play.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds