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Buying Opportunities?

One of my financial advisors came to meet with us on Friday and said that last week's stock market performance has made for great buying opportunities. At the beginning of the year, she warned me that I was too heavily weighted in cash, and because of my age, I should be fully invested in equities. I ignored her, but also ignored that little voice in my head that said to dump it all into cash. I now sit at 52% cash and 48% stocks. She wants me to get that to 2% cash, 98% stocks. Why the 2%? I don't know. But the important thing is that she thinks that the bottom is here. Historically, she says, the market drops only about 35% and no more.

Friday night, the DJIA sat at 8,451.19, down 40.33% from its all-time high of 14164.53. Japan's equivalent, the Nikkei 225, reached a peak of 38,915.87 on December 29, 1989.  From this high the Nikkei lost over 64% of its value before reaching a low of 14,194 in 1992. The Nikkei hit a 25 year low on Friday, closing at 8276. The index currently stands at 21% of its 1989 historical high. If you bought the Nikkei index at its peak at the end of 1989 and stayed the course, you would have lost 79% of your principal over the last 19 years. When it hit its 1990 low, it was down 48%, and people probably said "It's a great buying opportunity." Had you taken the opportunity, and then left the money in, you would lost 67% over the next 18 years.

I thought about having her dump it all into DIA, the Dow Jones tracking stock, but apparently her firm frowns on such stuff and would want me to sign a disclaimer of some sort, acknowledging that she begged me not to do anything so stupid. So instead, I drained all my cash in my other accounts and put those into DIA, leaving the cash available in my professionally managed pension account in case this market is still a falling knife.

Another local bank fails

First Heritage Bank of Newport Beach was shut down by the FDIC yesterday. It is the first OC-headquartered bank to fail since the Bank of Newport in 1994. Mutual of Omaha is taking over its accounts, so perhaps nobody is going to lose their life savings over this one. I know some folks who had over $500,000 on deposit at Indymac Bank. As a married couple, they were covered for $200,000. That means $300,000 is gone forever. You know how long it takes to save $300,000 after taxes? In their case, decades. If I had more than $200,000 at any bank ($100,000 if I was single), I'd split my accounts among different banks immediately.

Loitering at IndyMac Bank

There was a lot of standing around going on today outside the local IndyMac Bank branch.

It looked like there were a few official answerers going around with clipboards and information sheets about the change from "IndyMac Bank" to "IndyMac Federal Bank", but nobody there from the bank, or the FDIC, or whoever was in charge, had the good sense to tear down those ridiculous posters boasting that it was the "#1 Savings & Loan in Los Angeles."

And while I applaud them for putting a link to the FDIC on their home page, they should probably bury that tagline, "Raise your expectations.®", what with the fact that roughly a billion dollars in deposits (out of $19 billion total) there were uninsured.

$5 gas

The headlines on Yahoo, CNN and AOL warn people that $5 a gallon gas is coming, and sooner than people might think. I just dropped $4.95 9/10 on premium. When do I think the $5 mark is going to hit me? Next time I fill up, that's when.

Did you remember?

to file you income tax return extension today? I did.

The Reach of Disney

Some of the VMK people who came here from DISboards or Micechat after my post on Saturday are calling for a boycott of Disney if they close down the Virtual Magic Kingdom next month as planned. Well, kids, it didn't work for the Southern Baptists who tried to get Disney to stop being nice to their gay employees, but if you want to go for it, here's a partial list of the companies you are going to have to avoid patronizing as part of your boycott:

Buena Vista Television
Caravan Pictures
Cinergi Pictures Entertainment
Interscope Communications and Merchant-Ivory Productions
Hollywood Records
Hollywood Pictures
Miramax Films
The Disney Channel
Touchstone Television
Touchstone Pictures
Walt Disney Music Co.
Walt Disney Television
Walt Disney Home Video
Walt Disney Pictures
Walt Disney Theatrical Productions
Wonderland Music
A&E Network (jointly with Hearst and NBC)
ABC Television Network
ABC Radio Network
ABC News
ABC Sports
ESPN
KABC-TV, Los Angeles, CA
KABC-AM, Los Angeles, CA
KFSN-TV, Fresno, CA
KGO-TV, San Francisco, CA
KGO-AM, San Francisco, CA
KLOS-FM, Los Angeles, CA
KMPC-AM, Los Angeles, CA
KQRS-AM, Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
KSCS-FM, Fort Worth, TX
KTRK-TV, Houston, TX
Lifetime
WABC-AM, New York, NY
WABC-TV, New York, NY
WBAP-AM, Fort Worth, TX
WHYT-FM, Detroit, MI
WJR-AM, Detroit, MI
WKHX-AM, Atlanta, GA
WLS-TV, Chicago, IL
WLS-AM, Chicago, IL
WLS-FM, Chicago, IL
WMAL-AM, Washington, DC
WPLJ-FM, New York, NY
WPVI-TV, Philadelphia, PA
WRQX-FM, Washington, DC
WTVD-TV, Raleigh-Durham, NC
Walt Disney World, Orlando, FL (4 theme parks,21 resort hotels, 5 golf courses, 4 water parks)
Disneyland, Anaheim, CA (2 theme parks, 3 hotels)
Tokyo Disneyland, Tokyo, Japan
Euro-Disney, Paris, France
Disney Vacation Club-Orlando,FL
Disney Vacation Club-Vero Beach, FL
Disney Vacation Club-Hilton Head Island, SC
Disney Coronado Springs Resort
Disney Cruise Lines
Walt Disney Travel
Walt Disney Imagineering
Celebration Florida
Discover magazine
Disney Hachette Editions
Disney magazine
Disney Adventures magazine
Disney Press
Family PC magazine
Family Fun magazine
Hyperion Press for Kids
Hyperion Press
Mouse Works Publishing
American Metal Market
Assembly
Automotive Industries
Automotive Marketing
Automotive Body Repair News
Cablevision
CED
Children's Business
Clinical Psychiatry News
Commercial Carrier Journal
Convergence
Daily News Record
Electronic Industry Telephone Directory
Energy User News
Expansion
Family Practice News
Feedstuffs
Food Engineering
Food Engineering International
Food Formulating
Food Master
Footwear News
Hardware Age
HazMat Shipping
Home Furnishings Daily
Home Fashions
Industrial Paint & Powder
Industrial Safety & Hygiene
Industrial Maintenance & Plant Operation
Internal Medicine News
Jewelers Circular-Keystone
Manufacturing Systems
Metal Center News
Motor Age
Multichannel News
New Steel
Ob.Gyn. News
Obras
Owner Operator
Pediatric News
Product Design and Development
Quality
Review of Optometry
Review of Ophthalmology
Selling
Skin & Allergy News
Software Solutions
Sports Style
Supermarket News
Tacks n Togs Merchandising
Video Business
Video Software Magazine
Warehousing Management
Wireless Week
Women's Wear Daily
Abington-Rockland Mariner --Rockland, MA
Advertiser (The) --Branford, CT
Albany Democrat-Herald -- Albany, OR
Arlington Citizen Journal -- Arlington, TX
Armada Times --Armada, MI
Belleville News-Democrat -- Belleville, IL
Braintree Forum --Braintree, MA
Branford Review --Branford, CT
Brown City Banner --Brown City, MI
Canton News --Canton, CT
Cape Cod Pennysaver --Cape Cod, MA
Clinton Recorder --Clinton, CT
Cohassett Mariner --Cohassett, MA
Cottage Grove Sentinel --Cottage Grove, OR
Daily Tidings --Ashland, OR
Fort Worth Star-Telegram --Fort Worth, TX
Gresham Outlook --Gresham, OR
Hamden Chronicle --Hamden, CT
Hanover Mariner --Hanover, MA
Highland News-Leader -- Highland, IL
Hingham Mariner --Hingham, MA
Holbrook Sun --Holbrook, MA
Institutional Investor
Kansas City Star --Kansas City, MO
Kingston Independent Voice --Kingston, MA
Lebanon Express --Lebanon, OR
Little Nickel Want Ads -- Lynnwood, WA
Los Angeles Magazine
Marshfield Mariner --Marshfield, MA
Milford Citizen --Milford, CT
Narragansett Times --Wakefield, RI
Newport News-Times --Newport, OR
Niantic News --Niantic, CT
Nickel Ads --Portland, OR
Nickel Nik --Spokane, WA
Norwell Mariner --Norwell, MA
O'Fallon Progress --O'Fallon, IL
Pembroke Mariner --Pembroke, MA
Pictorial Gazette --Old Lyme, CT
Prairie Farmer --Lombard, IL
Randolph Mariner --Randolph, MA
Regional Standard --Colchester, CT
Sandy Post --Sandy, OR
Scituate Mariner --Scituate, MA
Shore Line Times --Guilford, CT
Sparta News-Plaindealer --Sparta, IL
Springfield News -- Springfield, OR
St. Louis Daily Record -St. Louis, MO
St. Louis Countian --Clayton, MO
Standard Times --North Kingstown, RI
The Pendulum --East Greenwich, CT
The Oakland Press --Pontiac, MI
Times Leader (The) --Wilkes-Barre, PA
Weymouth News --Weymouth, MA
Agricultural Publishing Group
Chilton Datalog
Chilton Book Company
Chilton Enterprises
Diversified Publishing Group
Fairchild Publications
Farm Progress Publications
Financial Services Publishing Group
Hitchcock Publishing Company
Imprint, Inc.
Miller Publishing Company
NILS Publishing Company
Wilson Publishing Company
UNOCO
Childcraft Education Corporation
Disney Educational Productions
Reedy Creek Energy Services
Vista Insurance Services
WCO Port Properties
Chilton Research Services
Chilton Management Information Systems
Chilton Direct Marketing & List
Professional Exposition Management Company
Legal Communications Corp.

Fortunately for local sports fans, they sold their interests in the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, so those are still good.

Just to be Safe, You Should Spend All Your Gift Cards Now

If you got a bunch of Sharper Image gift cards for Christmas and didn't spend them, they're basically junk now. You can use them as a 25% off coupon, on something worth no more than the value of the card, at some competitors, but that's about it. Retailers are dropping like flies, and once they hit bankrtupcy, those gift cards are gone, gone, gone.

The list of 2008 failures and closings here in Orange County is getting pretty long already.

• Wickes
• Levitz
• Bombay
• Hollywood Video
• Ann Taylor
• Sharper Image
• Zales
• Talbots
• Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherines

The first three, all furniture stores, are complete shutdowns and liquidations. Oh, your warranties are toast, too.

[Update: Sharper Image announced today that it would redeem gift cards issued before it sought bankruptcy protection on February 19 if customers use them in full during one transaction and apply them toward items costing double the value of the cards.]

If I Had Disneyland All To Myself...

Disneyland is done with the 18 month celebration of its 50th anniversary, and has moved on with their new promotion, The Year of A Million Dreams. It's pretty cool. They give all kinds of neat prizes to people at random. Some of the prizes yield special treatment similar to, or even better than, some of the cool stuff we experienced at Disney World last August. One of the prizes is spending the night inside the castle at one of the parks. Another prize lets you and your family get to have Disneyland all to yourself for two hours. That's the prize I'd like.

Since I am a passholder, just going on a few rides right away wouldn't be so unusual. I often get to the park and walk right onto the rides I like, either because it is really late, or really early, or the park is just empty, or its a limited admission event. Here, I'd start by trying to get in to visit Walt's apartment. Then I'd take the train over to New Orleans Square, where I would make it wait while I went on Pirates of the Caribbean, Haunted Mansion, and we'd take all the flash photographs we damn well pleased. We might even get out and walk around inside the rides. Next we'd each go on Splash Mountain one at a time and get the photos. Then we'd ride it again, all together, seated backwards. I would then take the train over to Toontown where the kids could ride Roger Rabbit until they were sick of it. Then back on the train we would go until we arrived at Tomorrowland, which would send us on Space Mountain, without any of the sounds. After a trip around Autopia, where we would be permitted to bump the car in front of us. Then we would walk back to Central Plaza for a private fireworks display, which we would enjoy so much, we'd tell them to fire up Fastasmic for a private show. If there was time left, I'd probably hit the Indiana Jones ride, and maybe take the fire truck or horseless carriage back to the front of Main Street. But I'm driving.

What would you do?

The Real Estate Bubble

It has officially burst. I got spam today from Centex homebuilders with a link to an offer for THIS WEEKEND ONLY, offering up to $125,000 off a new home.

We Didn't Settle

I hate sunrises and I hate flying. I really hate combining the two. But on Monday morning, I had to get up at 4:00 a.m. to get dressed and out the door by 4:30 a.m. to be at the airport by 5:15 a.m. to catch a 6:00 a.m. flight from Ontario to Oakland. I got there early and bought some breakfast at Carl's Jr. While I was eating, they started boarding my plane, and I had to check one of my briefcases. I seriously considered catching the next flight so I could have both cases with me, but I decided that it's best to stay with your original flight, so that if there is a crash, your relatives don't get psyched out thinking you're alive when you're dead, or vice versa. That, and the one hour delay could have made me late for the mediation, so I relented and handed over a bag. Since I ended up arriving only 45 minutes early, I think it is safe to assume that I would have indeed been late had I waited for the 7:00 a.m. flight.

And that would have been really embarrassing but for the fact that two of my three co-counsel ended up arriving 35 minutes late themselves. I was the only one of the group who flew out the morning of the meeting. Everyone else spent the night in San Francisco so they could wake up hung over refreshed and ready to meet. I, the lone dissenter, chose to spend the night with my wife. I'd rather get five hours of sleep with her than eight hours of sleep alone in a hotel room in the city.

The forecast called for heavy rain here, heavy rain there and heavy rain in between. I was pleased to encounter only light rain in the city, where I had to walk two blocks from the BART station to the mediator's office. That office became our home for about 10 hours. We had lunch ordered in, and we left after the dinner hour, but in time to catch my 8:05 flight home. On the flight home, I ordered a glass of white zin. The flight attendant laughed at me and asked "white zin?" Yeah, yeah, yeah, everyone's a critic. That may be a wussy drink, but I was already 16 hours into my work day and I needed something light on the taste buds that would help relax me but not knock me off my feet.

We did not settle. Eventually, our group of lawyers and clients had rejected a mediator's proposal that represented a very large confidential sum of cabbage. It would have generated a fee that would have been, by itself, the second-largest pile of cash I'd earned in any given year. But we said no, and unless at least two of us change our minds, we are taking the case to trial. Today we reported back to the judge, who gave us three more months to try to work on settlement. He really wants the parties to settle.

When I went to bed Monday night, after an 18 hour work day that caused me to miss the NCAA finals, I felt like I had maybe just pissed away a fortune. But yesterday, with some fresh rain to cleanse my thoughts, I felt more like Reggie Bush would feel after turning down a fat contract worth half the going rate for a top draft pick. It's a lot of money to leave on the table, but the case is worth more than they are offering, and eventually, we will probably see a much better offer. And if we don't, screw 'em. We'll take 'em to trial.

I'm About Done With My Bank

After ten years of banking with Bank of the West, we are on the verge of switching banks. I went to the bank today to cash a couple of personal checks for a few hundred dollars in folding paper. My personal account is at a branch of the same bank located across town. My four business accounts, which carry pretty hefty non-interest bearing balances, are at this branch.

I present the checks to the teller and sign them. She asks for my account number, which I provide. It checks out. She asks for my social, which I provide. It checks out. She asks for my driver's license, which I provide. It checks out.

And for the next 20 minutes, she tries to verify my signature by getting a signature card for my personal account from the branch across town.

My signature never comes close to looking the same at any two times. If I was to rank, in order, the most reliable ways of checking my identity, the photo ID would top the list, followed by the recital of all my key numbers, and somewhere around the tenth or twentieth spot, I would rank checking my signature. But rules are rules. And, to make matters worse, apparently, comparing my signature on these checks to the signature card on my business accounts won't suffice.

After about 15 minutes, the manager walks by and recognizes me. "Hi, [Lex]," she says. "You look relaxed today." "No," I reply, "this is my frustrated face. Is there nothing you can do about this? It shouldn't take 20 minutes to cash a check."

She comes by and approves something and walks away. The teller then starts printing something out and telling me it will be just another second. After three or four more minutes, she picks up the phone and calls the manager again. "I need an override because of the amount," she says. Finally, after 20 or 25 minutes, I get my cash. This happened once before, so I ask the teller if she can get a copy of that signature card and just keep it in the file with my business account.

She can't.

So is this sort of thing going to happen next time I want to cash a personal check?

It might.

I'm going to start asking people which bank doesn't piss them off, and then we're going with that one.

How To Get Rich, Plans B and C

The "working hard at business" plan is actually going pretty good, but I just uncovered two other ways to get rich. I'll call them Plan B and Plan C.

Plan B:

1.  Cook stuff like a mad demon until something, anything, comes off the pan with an image of a young woman in it.

2.  Call the image "the Virgin Mary."

3.  Put the thing on eBay.

The plan has three potential flaws. First, I have no idea how many things I'll have to cook to get the image right. Second, there seems to be a glut of Virgin Mary stuff on eBay all of a sudden. Third, I'm not sure that this is morally right. After all, just because there is an image of a young woman doesn't mean that I'm peddling a real image of the Virgin Mary. After all, it could just be the image of that Afghan girl from National Geographic.

Plan C:

1.  File for bankruptcy.

2.  Wait almost three years.

3.  Buy Sears & Roebuck & Co.

There is just one potential flaw in this plan. I can't figure out how, in less than three years after filing for bankruptcy, I am going to come up with the $11 billion to buy Sears. But I know the plan works, because somebody has already done it.

Not as Simple as it Sounds

China has a population that well exceeds one billion people. This means that if I figure out a way to do business there and make just one penny in profit off each one of them, I will have $10,000,000 in the bank.

If it works, I hit India second.

Amway, eat your heart out.